- Liberty CUSA 4-0, 1st · 7-1 overall · W7
- New Mexico State CUSA 2-2, 4th · 3-5 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LIB -16.5 | Same |
| Total | 47 | Same |
| Moneyline | LIB -750 NMSU +525 | LIB -715 NMSU +715 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Liberty by 16.5, total 47.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Liberty can win
- Elo rating: worth about 23.4 points to Liberty in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Liberty +33.0, New Mexico State -12.3.
- Point differential per game: Liberty rank 9th (+20.2), New Mexico State 104th (-3.8) of 138 FBS teams.
- Elo rating: Liberty rank 13th (1851), New Mexico State 123rd (1192) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Liberty can take advantage. Their running game (22nd of 138) meets the New Mexico State run defense (74th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their passing game (3rd of 138) meets the New Mexico State pass defense (48th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Deshawn Purdie (Liberty: 11.6 yards per attempt, 9 TD, 1 INT) has the edge on Adam Damante (New Mexico State: 6.3, 6 TD, 4 INT); at receiver, Makai Jackson (Liberty: 78 receiving yards a game, 5 TD) has the edge on AJ Williams III (New Mexico State: 32, 0 TD; filling in for Tyler King, missed the last game), facing the New Mexico State pass defense (48th of 138).
- Simulation: Liberty win 8,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Liberty may not
- Home field: New Mexico State play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Liberty come about 2,569 km (1,595 miles) for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Liberty lose by 3 or more.
- Body clock: Liberty cross 2 time zones.
- Team matchup: where New Mexico State can push back. Their pass rush (80th of 138) meets the Liberty pass protection (102nd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, James Jones (New Mexico State: 110 rushing yards a game, 6.4 a carry) has the edge on Kam Davis (Liberty: 75, 6.9), facing the Liberty run defense (56th of 138).
- Upset odds: New Mexico State win 1,230 of 10,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| LIB | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 3-5 |
| 33.8 33 | Points per game | 21.5 113 |
| 13.5 7 | Points allowed | 25.2 74 |
| 7.4 11 | Yards per play | 6.2 67 |
| 4.8 9 | Yards per play allowed | 5.6 56 |
| +0.9 5 | Interception margin/game | -0.4 108 |
| 6.1% 68 | Sacks per dropback | 5.5% 80 |
| 1851 13 | Elo rating | 1192 123 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | 2025 Wk 8 | New Mexico State 27 @ Liberty 30 | LIB |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 2 | Liberty 30 @ New Mexico State 24 | LIB |
| 2023-12-02 | 2023 Wk 14 | New Mexico State 35 @ Liberty 49 | LIB |
| 2023-09-09 | 2023 Wk 2 | New Mexico State 17 @ Liberty 33 | LIB |
| 2022-11-26 | 2022 Wk 13 | New Mexico State 49 @ Liberty 14 | NMSU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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