- Missouri State CUSA 2-2, 7th · 3-5 overall · W1
- Florida International CUSA 1-3, 8th · 3-5 overall · L3
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | FIU -3.5 | Same |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.6 |
| Moneyline | MOST +160 FIU -192 | MOST +150 FIU -150 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Florida International by 3.5, total 48.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Florida International can win
- Home field: Florida International play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Elo rating: worth about 2.3 points to Florida International in our ratings.
- Travel: Missouri State come about 1,762 km (1,094 miles) for this one.
- Team matchup: where Florida International can take advantage. Their pass rush (74th of 138) meets the Missouri State pass protection (98th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Devonte Lyons (Florida International: 52 rushing yards a game, 4.7 a carry) has the edge on Ramone Green Jr. (Missouri State: 33, 4.0), facing the Missouri State run defense (67th of 138); off the edge, Kenton Simmons (Florida International: 4 sacks) has the edge on Jared Lloyd (Missouri State: 2), facing the Missouri State pass protection (98th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Florida International 63% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Florida International win 6,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Florida International may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Missouri State +0.3, Florida International -15.0.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Florida International lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Florida International rank 134th of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.0).
- Weak spot: Florida International rank 129th of 138 in points per game (18.9).
- Team matchup: Missouri State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Henry Belin IV (Missouri State: 9.5 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on J.J. Kohl (Florida International: 7.4, 8 TD, 9 INT); at receiver, Isaiah Myers (Missouri State: 107 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Maguire Anderson (Florida International: 75, 0 TD), facing the Florida International pass defense (64th of 138).
- Upset odds: Missouri State win 4,000 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| MOST | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 3-5 |
| 24.4 92 | Points per game | 18.9 129 |
| 30.9 117 | Points allowed | 20.4 34 |
| 5.7 102 | Yards per play | 5.4 120 |
| 6.3 101 | Yards per play allowed | 5.5 49 |
| -0.3 105 | Interception margin/game | -0.4 108 |
| 5.2% 90 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 74 |
| 1229 117 | Elo rating | 1320 104 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | 2025 Wk 10 | Florida International 21 @ Missouri State 28 | MOST |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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