- Sam Houston CUSA 0-4, 10th · 1-7 overall · L5
- Jacksonville State CUSA 4-0, 2nd · 6-2 overall · W5
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JXST -15.5 | Same |
| Total | 47.5 | 47.6 |
| Moneyline | SHSU +500 JXST -700 | SHSU +600 JXST -600 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Jacksonville State by 15.5, total 47.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why Jacksonville State can win
- Elo rating: worth about 13.8 points to Jacksonville State in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jacksonville State +9.3, Sam Houston -13.3.
- Point differential per game: Jacksonville State rank 57th (+7.0), Sam Houston 118th (-7.1) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Jacksonville State can take advantage. Their running game (50th of 138) meets the Sam Houston run defense (112th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Jacksonville State. The closest: in the backfield, Alton McCaskill (Sam Houston: 28 rushing yards a game, 3.9 a carry) is about even with Jalen Likely (Jacksonville State: 27, 5.2), facing the Jacksonville State run defense (69th of 138).
- Simulation: Jacksonville State win 8,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Jacksonville State 84% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Jacksonville State may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Sam Houston rank 38th (7.6%), Jacksonville State 102nd (4.6%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jacksonville State lose by 3 or more.
- Interception margin per game: Sam Houston rank 58th (+0.1), Jacksonville State 96th (-0.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- Weak spot: Jacksonville State rank 114th of 138 in field goal percentage (61.1%).
- Team matchup: a strength Jacksonville State may not get to use. Their passing game (40th of 138) meets the Sam Houston pass defense (20th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, DJ Bailey (Sam Houston: 10.0 yards per attempt, 0 TD, 0 INT; filling in for Landyn Locke, missed the last game) has the edge on Caden Creel (Jacksonville State: 8.9, 13 TD, 8 INT); off the edge, Josh Alexander-Felton (Sam Houston: 3 sacks) has the edge on Tae Floyd (Jacksonville State: 2), facing the Jacksonville State pass protection (20th of 138).
- Upset odds: Sam Houston win 1,430 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| SHSU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 6-2 |
| 18.0 130 | Points per game | 26.9 77 |
| 25.1 72 | Points allowed | 19.9 32 |
| 5.7 103 | Yards per play | 6.6 37 |
| 5.5 51 | Yards per play allowed | 5.5 45 |
| +0.1 58 | Interception margin/game | -0.2 96 |
| 7.6% 38 | Sacks per dropback | 4.6% 102 |
| 1062 132 | Elo rating | 1487 67 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | 2025 Wk 7 | Jacksonville State 29 @ Sam Houston 27 | JXST |
| 2024-11-23 | 2024 Wk 13 | Sam Houston 11 @ Jacksonville State 21 | JXST |
| 2023-09-29 | 2023 Wk 5 | Jacksonville State 35 @ Sam Houston 28 | JXST |
| 2021-10-23 | 2021 Wk 8 | Jacksonville State 7 @ Sam Houston 42 | SHSU |
| 2014-12-06 | 2014 Wk 15 | Sam Houston 37 @ Jacksonville State 26 | SHSU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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