Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee
College football 2026 · Week 10 · · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
- Western Kentucky CUSA 2-2, 6th · 3-5 overall · L1
- Middle Tennessee CUSA 2-2, 5th · 4-4 overall · L1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | WKU -1 | Same |
| Total | 52.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | WKU -102 MTSU -118 | WKU -109 MTSU +109 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Western Kentucky by 1, total 52.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Western Kentucky can win
- Elo rating: worth about 4.3 points to Western Kentucky in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Western Kentucky +6.7, Middle Tennessee -3.3.
- History: Western Kentucky won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters turn over fast in college, so this says little).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Western Kentucky. The nearest thing to one: their running game (92nd of 138) meets the Middle Tennessee run defense (93rd), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Ajay Allen (Western Kentucky: 50 rushing yards a game, 4.3 a carry) has the edge on Terrence Brown Jr. (Middle Tennessee: 41, 6.3), facing the Middle Tennessee run defense (93rd of 138); off the edge, Elin Jones (Western Kentucky: 2 sacks) has the edge on Aidan Butts (Middle Tennessee: 1), facing the Middle Tennessee pass protection (19th of 138).
- The betting market agrees: Western Kentucky 51% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Western Kentucky win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Western Kentucky may not
- Home field: Middle Tennessee play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Offense, yards per play: Middle Tennessee rank 18th (7.0), Western Kentucky 87th (5.9) of 138 FBS teams.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Middle Tennessee rank 19th (3.4%), Western Kentucky 94th (6.6%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.0 points to Middle Tennessee in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Middle Tennessee can push back. Their running game (20th of 138) meets the Western Kentucky run defense (127th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Roman Gagliano (Middle Tennessee: 7.9 yards per attempt, 9 TD, 4 INT) has the edge on Brock Glenn (Western Kentucky: 7.2, 5 TD, 3 INT).
- Upset odds: Middle Tennessee win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Side by side
| WKU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 21.2 115 | Points per game | 23.9 95 |
| 31.1 119 | Points allowed | 29.6 110 |
| 5.9 87 | Yards per play | 7.0 18 |
| 5.9 78 | Yards per play allowed | 5.7 63 |
| -0.1 86 | Interception margin/game | +0.3 41 |
| 3.3% 128 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 103 |
| 1238 116 | Elo rating | 1135 126 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025 Wk 12 | Middle Tennessee 26 @ Western Kentucky 42 | WKU |
| 2024-09-14 | 2024 Wk 3 | Western Kentucky 49 @ Middle Tennessee 21 | WKU |
| 2023-09-28 | 2023 Wk 5 | Middle Tennessee 10 @ Western Kentucky 31 | WKU |
| 2022-10-15 | 2022 Wk 7 | Western Kentucky 35 @ Middle Tennessee 17 | WKU |
| 2021-11-06 | 2021 Wk 10 | Middle Tennessee 21 @ Western Kentucky 48 | WKU |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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