- Louisiana Tech Sun Belt - West 4-0, 1st · 6-2 overall · W5
- Troy Sun Belt - West 2-2, 5th · 4-4 overall · W1
Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | LT -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 45.5 | 45.7 |
| Moneyline | LT -218 TROY +180 | LT -204 TROY +204 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Louisiana Tech by 6.5, total 45.5.
Your pick
Picks lock at kickoff. Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.
Our number.
Advantages Why Louisiana Tech can win
- Elo rating: worth about 5.8 points to Louisiana Tech in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Louisiana Tech +21.7, Troy -10.3.
- Point differential per game: Louisiana Tech rank 40th (+11.8), Troy 92nd (-1.4) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Louisiana Tech can take advantage. Their pass rush (11th of 138) meets the Troy pass protection (115th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Blake Baker (Louisiana Tech: 9.4 yards per attempt, 12 TD, 1 INT) has the edge on Tucker Kilcrease (Troy: 7.7, 1 TD, 0 INT; filling in for Will Crowder, missed the last game); at receiver, Jalen Mickens (Louisiana Tech: 77 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Noreel White (Troy: 32, 0 TD; filling in for TK Keyes, missed the last 2 games), facing the Troy pass defense (30th of 138).
- Simulation: Louisiana Tech win 6,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Louisiana Tech 66% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Louisiana Tech may not
- Home field: Troy play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Louisiana Tech lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Louisiana Tech rank 138th of 138 in field goal percentage (35.7%).
- Weak spot: Louisiana Tech rank 102nd of 138 in running game, yards per carry (4.7).
- Team matchup: a strength Louisiana Tech may not get to use. Their big-play offense (39th of 138) meets the Troy defense against big plays (38th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Gavin Griffin (Troy: 54 rushing yards a game, 4.5 a carry) has the edge on Andrew Burnette (Louisiana Tech: 46, 3.9), facing the Louisiana Tech run defense (43rd of 138).
- Upset odds: Troy win 3,290 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
Loading the latest headlines...
Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Side by side
| LT | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 32.6 41 | Points per game | 23.0 102 |
| 20.9 39 | Points allowed | 24.4 67 |
| 6.1 69 | Yards per play | 5.9 91 |
| 5.5 46 | Yards per play allowed | 5.3 29 |
| +1.0 3 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 8.9% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 4.1% 117 |
| 1484 69 | Elo rating | 1339 101 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat