Bellarmine @ #7 Louisville
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · ASUN vs ACC · · KFC Yum! Center
- Bellarmine Schedule and results
- Louisville AP #7
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 135.1
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
Advantages Why Louisville can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Louisville 13th (+24.5), Bellarmine 363rd (-48.6) of 364.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 18.8 points to Louisville in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 7.4 points to Louisville in our ratings.
- Simulation: Louisville win 4,990 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Louisville about 5.2 points stronger over recent games.
- Team matchup: where Louisville can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (25th of 364) meets the Bellarmine shooting defense (360th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (32nd of 364) meets the Bellarmine defensive rebounding (353rd): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Louisville. The closest: best player against best player, Laura Ziegler (Louisville: 11.0 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 9.9) is about even with Triniti Ralston (Bellarmine: 13.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.4 ast, Game Score 9.9).
Disadvantages Why Louisville may not
- Upset odds: Bellarmine win 10 of 5,000 simulations (under 1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Bellarmine 163rd (0.20), Louisville 321st (0.16) of 364.
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 321st of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Team matchup: Bellarmine have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Louisville on paper, but Triniti Ralston (13.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.4 ast, Game Score 9.9) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LOU -37.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 135.1 |
| Win chance | BELL n/a · LOU n/a | BELL 0% · LOU 100% |
| Moneyline | BELL +52917 · LOU -52917 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Louisville 93, Bellarmine 62.
- 80% of simulations land between Louisville by 16 and Louisville by 46.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
BELL Bellarmine
Every regular played last game.
LOU Louisville
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| BELL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -48.6 363 | Net rating | +24.5 13 |
| 66.8 363 | Offensive rating | 109.2 13 |
| 115.4 363 | Defensive rating | 84.7 42 |
| +0.8 85 | Strength of schedule | +2.2 19 |
| 36.1% 362 | Effective FG% | 51.5% 25 |
| 52.5% 360 | Opponent eFG% | 44.6% 118 |
| 28.5 350 | Turnovers per 100 | 18.6 35 |
| 21.2% 359 | Offensive rebound % | 37.5% 32 |
| 26.0% 336 | 3-point % | 34.3% 49 |
| 71.5 163 | Pace | 72.1 140 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | Bellarmine 37 @ Louisville 100 | LOU |
| 2023-11-16 | 2023-24 | Bellarmine 33 @ Louisville 111 | LOU |
| 2022-12-14 | 2022-23 | Louisville 73 @ Bellarmine 43 | LOU |
| 2021-11-16 | 2021-22 | Bellarmine 25 @ Louisville 82 | LOU |
| 2021-01-02 | 2020-21 | Bellarmine 46 @ Louisville 97 | LOU |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works