- Stetson 1-0 · Atlantic Sun 0-0, 1st · W1
- Louisville AP #7 · 1-0 · ACC 0-0, 5th · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LOU -21.1 |
| Total | n/a | 138.9 |
| Moneyline | n/a | STET +2669 LOU -2669 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- LOU 85, STET 64
- 8 in 10 games
- LOU by 5 to LOU by 37
Advantages Why Louisville can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to Louisville in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Louisville about 5.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Louisville's offense (110.2 points per 100 possessions, 12th in Division I) meets a Stetson defense that ranks 267th.
- Home court: Louisville play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Team matchup: where Louisville can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (31st of 363) meets the Stetson defensive rebounding (210th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (20th of 363) meets the Stetson shooting defense (189th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Louisville. The closest: best player against best player, Cameron Thomas (Stetson: 16.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 10.1) is about even with Laura Ziegler (Louisville: 11.0 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 9.9).
- Simulation: Louisville win 4,820 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Louisville may not
- Weak spot: Louisville rank 322nd of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Stetson 171st (0.20), Louisville 322nd (0.16) of 363.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Team matchup: a strength Louisville may not get to use. Their ball pressure (107th of 363) meets the Stetson ball security (92nd), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Louisville on paper, but Cameron Thomas (16.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 10.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Stetson win 180 of 5,000 simulations (4%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 4 times in 100.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
STET Stetson
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
LOU Louisville
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| STET | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| +1.8 150 | Net rating | +26.4 9 |
| 97.8 80 | Offensive rating | 110.2 12 |
| 95.9 267 | Defensive rating | 83.8 29 |
| -0.6 245 | Strength of schedule | +2.4 28 |
| 49.0% 78 | Effective FG% | 51.8% 20 |
| 45.7% 189 | Opponent eFG% | 44.3% 100 |
| 20.5 92 | Turnovers per 100 | 18.2 26 |
| 30.1% 221 | Offensive rebound % | 37.6% 31 |
| 32.4% 99 | 3-point % | 34.4% 41 |
| 69.5 258 | Pace | 72.4 129 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
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