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UPST

South Carolina Upstate @ Wake Forest

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Big South vs ACC · · LJVM Coliseum

WAKE
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 128.5

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
WAKEWake Forest Demon Deacons
54% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Wake Forest can win

  1. Home court: Wake Forest play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Wake Forest 188th (-1.6), South Carolina Upstate 316th (-15.9) of 364.
  3. Simulation: Wake Forest win 2,685 of 5,000 simulated games.
  4. Strength of schedule: Wake Forest 168th (+0.1), South Carolina Upstate 344th (-1.2) of 364.
  5. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Wake Forest 212th (23.5), South Carolina Upstate 362nd (33.3) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: where Wake Forest can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (48th of 364) meets the South Carolina Upstate shooting defense (160th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (295th of 364) meets the South Carolina Upstate ball security (362nd): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Grace Oliver (Wake Forest: 14.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 12.0) has the edge on Cassie Gallagher (South Carolina Upstate: 15.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 7.7).

Disadvantages Why Wake Forest may not

  1. Upset odds: South Carolina Upstate win 2,315 of 5,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated South Carolina Upstate about 2.6 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to South Carolina Upstate in our ratings.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Wake Forest lose by 15 or more.
  5. Weak spot: Wake Forest rank 333rd of 364 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.8%).
  6. Team matchup: where South Carolina Upstate can push back. Their offensive rebounding (41st of 364) meets the Wake Forest defensive rebounding (241st), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean Wake Forest on paper, but Cassie Gallagher (15.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 7.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetWAKE -1.2
Total pointsn/a128.5
Win chanceUPST n/a · WAKE n/aUPST 46% · WAKE 54%
MoneylineUPST +116 · WAKE -116 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Wake Forest 76, South Carolina Upstate 75.
  • 80% of simulations land between South Carolina Upstate by 15 and Wake Forest by 17.
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Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

UPST South Carolina Upstate

Every regular played last game.

WAKE Wake Forest

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

UPSTWAKE
0-0Record0-0
-15.9 316Net rating-1.6 188
78.9 335Offensive rating91.8 171
94.7 251Defensive rating93.4 226
-1.2 344Strength of schedule+0.1 168
43.7% 239Effective FG%50.2% 48
45.2% 160Opponent eFG%44.4% 109
33.3 362Turnovers per 10023.5 212
36.9% 41Offensive rebound %24.8% 333
32.6% 873-point %33.3% 69
68.5 292Pace71.0 181

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

46%South Carolina Upstate
54%Wake Forest

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)