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BUCK

Bucknell @ Florida

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Patriot vs SEC · · Stephen C. O'Connell Center

FLA
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 128.1

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
FLAFlorida Gators
77% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Florida can win

  1. Simulation: Florida win 3,860 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Florida 88th (+8.7), Bucknell 279th (-11.0) of 364.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Florida in our ratings.
  4. Home court: Florida play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  5. Strength of schedule: Florida 48th (+1.5), Bucknell 290th (-0.7) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: where Florida can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (99th of 364) meets the Bucknell defensive rebounding (214th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (99th of 364) meets the Bucknell ball security (179th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: Florida play fast (65th of 364 in pace), Bucknell slow (360th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Liv McGill (Florida: 22.5 pts, 6.1 reb, 6.3 ast, Game Score 14.9) has the edge on Tuana Coskun (Bucknell: 13.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 7.3).

Disadvantages Why Florida may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Bucknell about 1.4 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Upset odds: Bucknell win 1,140 of 5,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Florida lose by 8 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Florida rank 271st of 364 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (66.2%).
  5. Weak spot: Florida rank 254th of 364 in three-point shooting (29.0%).
  6. Team matchup: Bucknell have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean Florida on paper, but Tuana Coskun (13.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 7.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetFLA -9.1
Total pointsn/a128.1
Win chanceBUCK n/a · FLA n/aBUCK 23% · FLA 77%
MoneylineBUCK +338 · FLA -338 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Florida 80, Bucknell 70.
  • 80% of simulations land between Bucknell by 8 and Florida by 25.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

BUCK Bucknell

Every regular played last game.

FLA Florida

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

BUCKFLA
0-0Record0-0
-11.0 279Net rating+8.7 88
80.9 318Offensive rating99.1 69
91.9 195Defensive rating90.3 152
-0.7 290Strength of schedule+1.5 48
42.4% 284Effective FG%49.4% 69
44.6% 124Opponent eFG%44.9% 140
22.9 179Turnovers per 10022.9 181
22.7% 351Offensive rebound %33.9% 99
27.0% 3163-point %29.0% 254
63.1 360Pace73.9 65

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

23%Bucknell
77%Florida

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)