Southern @ #22 Oklahoma State
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs Big 12 · · Gallagher-Iba Arena
- Southern Schedule and results
- Oklahoma State AP #22
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 134.3
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Oklahoma State can win
- Simulation: Oklahoma State win 4,100 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Oklahoma State 20th (+21.1), Southern 196th (-2.0) of 364.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Oklahoma State about 2.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Oklahoma State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Oklahoma State 7th (75.3%), Southern 327th (63.5%) of 364.
- Team matchup: where Oklahoma State can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (51st of 364) meets the Southern defensive rebounding (327th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (88th of 364) meets the Southern ball security (209th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Achol Akot (Oklahoma State: 12.4 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 12.1) has the edge on DeMya Porter (Southern: 9.6 pts, 5.2 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 7.0); at guard, Jadyn Wooten (Oklahoma State: 12.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.4 ast, Game Score 10.9) has the edge on Jocelyn Tate (Southern: 7.8 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 5.9).
Disadvantages Why Oklahoma State may not
- Upset odds: Southern win 900 of 5,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Oklahoma State lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Oklahoma State rank 313th of 364 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (48.9%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Team matchup: Southern have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Oklahoma State on paper, but DeMya Porter (9.6 pts, 5.2 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 7.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKST -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 134.3 |
| Win chance | SOU n/a · OKST n/a | SOU 18% · OKST 82% |
| Moneyline | SOU +456 · OKST -456 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Oklahoma State 81, Southern 70.
- 80% of simulations land between Southern by 6 and Oklahoma State by 27.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
SOU Southern
Every regular played last game.
OKST Oklahoma State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| SOU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -2.0 196 | Net rating | +21.1 20 |
| 83.8 286 | Offensive rating | 111.0 10 |
| 85.8 51 | Defensive rating | 89.9 146 |
| -0.5 253 | Strength of schedule | +0.9 73 |
| 41.2% 311 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 16 |
| 44.3% 106 | Opponent eFG% | 48.9% 313 |
| 23.4 209 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.0 43 |
| 33.2% 113 | Offensive rebound % | 36.2% 51 |
| 32.2% 110 | 3-point % | 34.6% 39 |
| 71.9 145 | Pace | 72.4 126 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-15 | 2021-22 | Southern 33 @ Oklahoma State 75 | OKST |
| 2020-12-02 | 2020-21 | Southern 34 @ Oklahoma State 68 | OKST |
| 2019-12-17 | 2019-20 | Southern 59 @ Oklahoma State 72 | OKST |
| 2017-11-30 | 2017-18 | Southern 66 @ Oklahoma State 94 | OKST |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works