Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 130.1
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
Advantages Why UConn can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 19.0 points to UConn in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated UConn about 13.3 points stronger over recent games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 8.0 points to UConn in our ratings.
- Simulation: UConn win 4,995 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): UConn 1st (+49.8), Cornell 323rd (-16.8) of 364.
- Team matchup: where UConn can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (1st of 364) meets the Cornell shooting defense (331st), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (5th of 364) meets the Cornell ball security (280th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: UConn play fast (94th of 364 in pace), Cornell slow (359th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Sarah Strong (UConn: 18.4 pts, 7.7 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 19.8) has the edge on Rachel Kaus (Cornell: 11.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 6.8).
Disadvantages Why UConn may not
- Upset odds: Cornell win 5 of 5,000 simulations (under 1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
- Weak spot: UConn rank 353rd of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.15).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
- Team matchup: Cornell have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean UConn on paper, but Rachel Kaus (11.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 6.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CONN -46.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 130.1 |
| Win chance | COR n/a · CONN n/a | COR 0% · CONN 100% |
| Moneyline | COR +173084 · CONN -173084 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: UConn 98, Cornell 63.
- 80% of simulations land between UConn by 20 and UConn by 50.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
COR Cornell
Every regular played last game.
CONN UConn
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| COR | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -16.8 323 | Net rating | +49.8 1 |
| 82.6 301 | Offensive rating | 118.7 3 |
| 99.5 306 | Defensive rating | 68.9 1 |
| +0.5 108 | Strength of schedule | +1.5 49 |
| 43.8% 236 | Effective FG% | 58.5% 1 |
| 49.8% 331 | Opponent eFG% | 39.2% 3 |
| 25.0 280 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.2 9 |
| 26.8% 297 | Offensive rebound % | 34.5% 82 |
| 31.5% 134 | 3-point % | 38.5% 2 |
| 63.5 359 | Pace | 73.2 94 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works