Creighton @ South Dakota State
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Big East vs Summit · · First Bank & Trust Arena
- Creighton Schedule and results
- South Dakota State Schedule and results
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 134.8
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why South Dakota State can win
- Simulation: South Dakota State win 4,450 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to South Dakota State in our ratings.
- South Dakota State's offense (108.9 points per 100 possessions, 15th in Division I) meets a Creighton defense that ranks 291st.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): South Dakota State 21st (+20.6), Creighton 189th (-1.8) of 364.
- Home court: South Dakota State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Team matchup: where South Dakota State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (7th of 364) meets the Creighton shooting defense (300th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Brooklyn Meyer (South Dakota State: 22.6 pts, 8.0 reb, 2.6 ast, Game Score 20.5) has the edge on Ava Zediker (Creighton: 13.3 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.4 ast, Game Score 9.3).
Disadvantages Why South Dakota State may not
- Upset odds: Creighton win 550 of 5,000 simulations (11%). A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations South Dakota State lose by 2 or more.
- Weak spot: South Dakota State rank 321st of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (18.9).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Team matchup: Creighton have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean South Dakota State on paper, but Ava Zediker (13.3 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.4 ast, Game Score 9.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SDST -14 |
| Total points | n/a | 134.8 |
| Win chance | CREI n/a · SDST n/a | CREI 11% · SDST 89% |
| Moneyline | CREI +811 · SDST -811 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: South Dakota State 82, Creighton 68.
- 80% of simulations land between Creighton by 2 and South Dakota State by 30.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
CREI Creighton
Every regular played last game.
SDST South Dakota State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| CREI | SDST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -1.8 189 | Net rating | +20.6 21 |
| 95.7 119 | Offensive rating | 108.9 15 |
| 97.5 291 | Defensive rating | 88.3 103 |
| +1.2 56 | Strength of schedule | +0.9 70 |
| 47.1% 122 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 7 |
| 48.4% 300 | Opponent eFG% | 43.9% 79 |
| 19.6 61 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.5 58 |
| 27.9% 282 | Offensive rebound % | 31.0% 187 |
| 32.2% 108 | 3-point % | 35.1% 28 |
| 70.5 216 | Pace | 69.7 247 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | South Dakota State 78 @ Creighton 62 | SDST |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | Creighton 71 @ South Dakota State 76 | SDST |
| 2023-12-21 | 2023-24 | South Dakota State 46 @ Creighton 58 | CREI |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022-23 | Creighton 78 @ South Dakota State 69 | CREI |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021-22 | South Dakota State 55 @ Creighton 67 | CREI |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works