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DUQ

Duquesne @ Tennessee

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Atlantic 10 vs SEC · · Food City Center

TENN
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 140.6

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
TENNTennessee Lady Volunteers
84% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Tennessee can win

  1. Simulation: Tennessee win 4,210 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Home court: Tennessee play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Tennessee 86th (+9.0), Duquesne 233rd (-5.9) of 364.
  4. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Tennessee about 2.4 points stronger over recent games.
  5. Strength of schedule: Tennessee 5th (+3.5), Duquesne 289th (-0.7) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: where Tennessee can take advantage. Their ball pressure (68th of 364) meets the Duquesne ball security (333rd), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (40th of 364) meets the Duquesne defensive rebounding (182nd): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: At forward, Janiah Barker (Tennessee: 14.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.1) has the edge on Harriet Ford (Duquesne: 6.6 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 4.5); best player against best player, Talaysia Cooper (Tennessee: 16.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 11.6) has the edge on Alexis Bordas (Duquesne: 15.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 8.6).

Disadvantages Why Tennessee may not

  1. Upset odds: Duquesne win 790 of 5,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Tennessee lose by 5 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Tennessee rank 298th of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
  4. Weak spot: Tennessee rank 287th of 364 in points allowed per game (69.6).
  5. Weak spot: Tennessee rank 268th of 364 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (47.5%).
  6. Team matchup: where Duquesne can push back. Their offensive rebounding (100th of 364) meets the Tennessee defensive rebounding (206th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean Tennessee on paper, but Alexis Bordas (15.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 8.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetTENN -11.8
Total pointsn/a140.6
Win chanceDUQ n/a · TENN n/aDUQ 16% · TENN 84%
MoneylineDUQ +532 · TENN -532 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Tennessee 80.5, Duquesne 69.
  • 80% of simulations land between Duquesne by 5 and Tennessee by 28.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

DUQ Duquesne

Every regular played last game.

TENN Tennessee

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

DUQTENN
0-0Record0-0
-5.9 233Net rating+9.0 86
84.6 270Offensive rating100.7 55
90.5 158Defensive rating91.7 188
-0.7 289Strength of schedule+3.5 5
42.9% 273Effective FG%47.9% 99
44.3% 102Opponent eFG%47.5% 268
27.2 333Turnovers per 10020.5 94
33.8% 100Offensive rebound %37.0% 40
31.9% 1263-point %30.5% 180
72.1 138Pace75.9 32

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

16%Duquesne
84%Tennessee

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)