SE Louisiana @ #9 LSU
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Southland vs SEC · · Pete Maravich Assembly Center
- SE Louisiana Schedule and results
- LSU AP #9
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 147
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
Advantages Why LSU can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): LSU 2nd (+43.1), SE Louisiana 350th (-25.3) of 364.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 14.8 points to LSU in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated LSU about 8.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: LSU win 4,985 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 5.7 points to LSU in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where LSU can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (1st of 364) meets the SE Louisiana defensive rebounding (362nd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (3rd of 364) meets the SE Louisiana shooting defense (348th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. Pace clash: LSU play fast (8th of 364 in pace), SE Louisiana slow (245th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, MiLaysia Fulwiley (LSU: 14.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 12.9) has the edge on Aliyah Collins (SE Louisiana: 14.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.1 ast, Game Score 9.7).
Disadvantages Why LSU may not
- Upset odds: SE Louisiana win 15 of 5,000 simulations (under 1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
- Small samples: early-season numbers come from a handful of games against very different opponents.
- Team matchup: SE Louisiana have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean LSU on paper, but Aliyah Collins (14.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.1 ast, Game Score 9.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LSU -35.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 147 |
| Win chance | SELA n/a · LSU n/a | SELA 0% · LSU 100% |
| Moneyline | SELA +29198 · LSU -29198 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: LSU 92, SE Louisiana 62.
- 80% of simulations land between LSU by 16 and LSU by 45.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
SELA SE Louisiana
Every regular played last game.
LSU LSU
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| SELA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -25.3 350 | Net rating | +43.1 2 |
| 82.5 303 | Offensive rating | 120.9 1 |
| 107.8 361 | Defensive rating | 77.8 3 |
| +0.2 142 | Strength of schedule | +2.1 25 |
| 40.6% 327 | Effective FG% | 54.8% 3 |
| 50.5% 348 | Opponent eFG% | 40.2% 7 |
| 22.3 152 | Turnovers per 100 | 18.6 36 |
| 29.1% 253 | Offensive rebound % | 46.9% 1 |
| 29.8% 211 | 3-point % | 37.8% 4 |
| 69.8 245 | Pace | 78.5 8 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-26 | SE Louisiana 26 @ LSU 115 | LSU |
| 2023-11-17 | 2023-24 | LSU 73 @ SE Louisiana 50 | LSU |
| 2022-11-29 | 2022-23 | SE Louisiana 55 @ LSU 63 | LSU |
| 2019-11-20 | 2019-20 | SE Louisiana 52 @ LSU 62 | LSU |
| 2018-12-27 | 2018-19 | SE Louisiana 52 @ LSU 72 | LSU |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works