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XAV

Xavier @ Purdue Fort Wayne

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Big East vs Horizon · · Hilliard Gates Sports Center

PFW
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 133.5

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
PFWPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
90% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Purdue Fort Wayne can win

  1. Simulation: Purdue Fort Wayne win 4,500 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to Purdue Fort Wayne in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Purdue Fort Wayne 113th (+6.4), Xavier 287th (-11.9) of 364.
  4. Home court: Purdue Fort Wayne play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  5. Purdue Fort Wayne's offense (95.3 points per 100 possessions, 130th in Division I) meets a Xavier defense that ranks 274th.
  6. Team matchup: where Purdue Fort Wayne can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (67th of 364) meets the Xavier shooting defense (265th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (74th of 364) meets the Xavier ball security (261st): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: Purdue Fort Wayne play fast (83rd of 364 in pace), Xavier slow (273rd); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Alana Nelson (Purdue Fort Wayne: 16.5 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 11.9) has the edge on MacKenzie Givens (Xavier: 11.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 8.7).

Disadvantages Why Purdue Fort Wayne may not

  1. Upset odds: Xavier win 500 of 5,000 simulations (10%). A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
  2. Strength of schedule: Xavier 113th (+0.5), Purdue Fort Wayne 256th (-0.5) of 364.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Purdue Fort Wayne lose by 2 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Purdue Fort Wayne rank 356th of 364 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (22.3%).
  5. Weak spot: Purdue Fort Wayne rank 256th of 364 in strength of schedule (-0.5).
  6. Team matchup: Xavier have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  7. Star matchup: At guard, Mariyah Noel (Xavier: 14.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 7.2) has the edge on Rylee Bess (Purdue Fort Wayne: 8.9 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 6.0).

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetPFW -14.8
Total pointsn/a133.5
Win chanceXAV n/a · PFW n/aXAV 10% · PFW 90%
MoneylineXAV +899 · PFW -899 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Purdue Fort Wayne 82, Xavier 67.
  • 80% of simulations land between Xavier by 2 and Purdue Fort Wayne by 31.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

XAV Xavier

Every regular played last game.

PFW Purdue Fort Wayne

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

XAVPFW
0-0Record0-0
-11.9 287Net rating+6.4 113
84.5 273Offensive rating95.3 130
96.3 274Defensive rating88.8 120
+0.5 113Strength of schedule-0.5 256
44.4% 210Effective FG%49.4% 67
47.3% 265Opponent eFG%46.6% 242
24.6 261Turnovers per 10019.5 54
27.5% 288Offensive rebound %22.3% 356
28.3% 2843-point %30.8% 167
69.1 273Pace73.5 83

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-072025-26Purdue Fort Wayne 61 @ Xavier 62XAV
2017-11-292017-18Purdue Fort Wayne 50 @ Xavier 62XAV

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

10%Xavier
90%Purdue Fort Wayne

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)