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STO

Stonehill @ Providence

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · NEC vs Big East · · Alumni Hall (RI)

PROV
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
PROVProvidence Friars
57% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetPROV -2.1
Totaln/a127
Moneylinen/aSTO +130
PROV -130 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

PROV 76, STO 74Typical score
STO by 14 to PROV by 188 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Providence can win

  1. Home court: Providence play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Providence 103rd (+0.5), Stonehill 354th (-1.4) of 364.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Providence 224th (23.8), Stonehill 311th (26.1) of 364.
  4. Relative strength: Providence rank 103rd of 364 in strength of schedule (+0.5).
  5. Team matchup: where Providence can take advantage. Their ball pressure (154th of 364) meets the Stonehill ball security (311th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Providence. The closest: best player against best player, Sabou Gueye (Providence: 15.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 10.7) is about even with Reese Roggenburk (Stonehill: 9.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 10.1).
  7. Simulation: Providence win 2,830 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Providence may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Stonehill about 2.7 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Stonehill in our ratings.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Providence lose by 14 or more.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.5 points to Stonehill in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Stonehill can push back. Their offensive rebounding (91st of 364) meets the Providence defensive rebounding (161st), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Providence on paper, but Reese Roggenburk (9.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 10.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Stonehill win 2,170 of 5,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

STO Stonehill

Every regular played last game.

PROV Providence

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

STOPROV
0-0Record0-0
-10.0 266Net rating-5.6 230
86.8 246Offensive rating86.3 251
96.8 283Defensive rating91.9 196
-1.4 354Strength of schedule+0.5 103
44.1% 221Effective FG%42.9% 271
48.3% 294Opponent eFG%46.6% 245
26.1 311Turnovers per 10023.8 224
34.1% 91Offensive rebound %32.5% 136
28.8% 2653-point %27.9% 292
67.9 308Pace69.5 258

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-12-132025-26Stonehill 51 @ Providence 63PROV
2022-11-112022-23Stonehill 32 @ Providence 56PROV

What if?

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43%Stonehill
57%Providence

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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