Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 130.2
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Richmond can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.7 points to Richmond in our ratings.
- Simulation: Richmond win 3,580 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Richmond 27th (+18.7), Charlotte 213th (-3.8) of 364.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.1 points to Richmond in our ratings.
- Richmond's offense (106.4 points per 100 possessions, 24th in Division I) meets a Charlotte defense that ranks 233rd.
- Team matchup: where Richmond can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (5th of 364) meets the Charlotte shooting defense (229th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Maggie Doogan (Richmond: 21.1 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.9 ast, Game Score 16.2) has the edge on Tanajah Hayes (Charlotte: 11.0 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.3 ast, Game Score 7.9).
Disadvantages Why Richmond may not
- Home court: Charlotte play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Upset odds: Charlotte win 1,420 of 5,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Richmond lose by 9 or more.
- History: Charlotte won 5 of the last 5 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
- Weak spot: Richmond rank 324th of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
- Team matchup: where Charlotte can push back. Their offensive rebounding (5th of 364) meets the Richmond defensive rebounding (131st), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Richmond on paper, but Tanajah Hayes (11.0 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.3 ast, Game Score 7.9) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | RICH -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 130.2 |
| Win chance | RICH n/a · CLT n/a | RICH 72% · CLT 28% |
| Moneyline | RICH -252 · CLT +252 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Charlotte 72, Richmond 79.
- 80% of simulations land between Richmond by 23 and Charlotte by 9.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
RICH Richmond
Every regular played last game.
CLT Charlotte
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| RICH | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +18.7 27 | Net rating | -3.8 213 |
| 106.4 24 | Offensive rating | 89.9 196 |
| 87.8 92 | Defensive rating | 93.8 233 |
| +1.4 50 | Strength of schedule | +0.2 150 |
| 54.7% 5 | Effective FG% | 42.0% 297 |
| 44.1% 98 | Opponent eFG% | 46.4% 229 |
| 20.7 99 | Turnovers per 100 | 24.0 239 |
| 29.7% 232 | Offensive rebound % | 41.5% 5 |
| 36.5% 11 | 3-point % | 30.1% 196 |
| 67.8 310 | Pace | 70.6 211 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-22 | Charlotte 63 @ Richmond 45 | CLT |
| 2019-11-09 | 2019-20 | Richmond 59 @ Charlotte 78 | CLT |
| 2013-03-03 | 2012-13 | Charlotte 64 @ Richmond 55 | CLT |
| 2012-02-26 | 2011-12 | Richmond 62 @ Charlotte 77 | CLT |
| 2011-03-05 | 2010-11 | Charlotte 68 @ Richmond 63 (neutral) | CLT |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works