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Merrimack @ Florida State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · MAAC vs ACC · · Tucker Center

FSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 141.2

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
MRMKMerrimack Warriors
65% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Merrimack can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.6 points to Merrimack in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: Merrimack win 3,260 of 5,000 simulated games.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Merrimack about 2.4 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to Merrimack in our ratings.
  5. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Merrimack 137th (+3.0), Florida State 246th (-7.2) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: where Merrimack can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (169th of 364) meets the Florida State shooting defense (258th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (103rd of 364) meets the Florida State defensive rebounding (189th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Madison Roman (Merrimack: 13.5 pts, 10.9 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 11.6) has the edge on Sole Williams (Florida State: 15.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 8.2).

Disadvantages Why Merrimack may not

  1. Home court: Florida State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Upset odds: Florida State win 1,740 of 5,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
  3. Strength of schedule: Florida State 34th (+1.8), Merrimack 270th (-0.6) of 364.
  4. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Florida State 62nd (19.6), Merrimack 210th (23.4) of 364.
  5. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Merrimack lose by 11 or more.
  6. Team matchup: a strength Merrimack may not get to use. Their ball pressure (138th of 364) meets the Florida State ball security (62nd), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean Merrimack on paper, but Sole Williams (15.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 8.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMRMK -4.8
Total pointsn/a141.2
Win chanceMRMK n/a · FSU n/aMRMK 65% · FSU 35%
MoneylineMRMK -187 · FSU +187 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Florida State 73, Merrimack 78.
  • 80% of simulations land between Merrimack by 21 and Florida State by 11.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

MRMK Merrimack

Every regular played last game.

FSU Florida State

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

MRMKFSU
0-0Record0-0
+3.0 137Net rating-7.2 246
91.7 172Offensive rating92.4 159
88.7 114Defensive rating99.6 308
-0.6 270Strength of schedule+1.8 34
45.4% 169Effective FG%43.7% 240
43.9% 80Opponent eFG%47.1% 258
23.4 210Turnovers per 10019.6 62
33.6% 103Offensive rebound %30.3% 210
29.8% 2143-point %30.7% 173
72.5 121Pace77.4 13

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

65%Merrimack
35%Florida State

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)