Florida Atlantic @ Miami
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · American vs ACC · · Watsco Center
- Florida Atlantic Schedule and results
- Miami Schedule and results
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 135.8
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Miami can win
- Simulation: Miami win 4,105 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to Miami in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Miami 109th (+6.9), Florida Atlantic 277th (-10.9) of 364.
- Home court: Miami play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Miami's offense (98.3 points per 100 possessions, 77th in Division I) meets a Florida Atlantic defense that ranks 258th.
- Team matchup: where Miami can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (92nd of 364) meets the Florida Atlantic shooting defense (250th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (132nd of 364) meets the Florida Atlantic defensive rebounding (285th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Ra Shaya Kyle (Miami: 16.3 pts, 10.5 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 13.0) has the edge on Vivian Onugha (Florida Atlantic: 9.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 6.3); at guard, Amarachi Kimpson (Miami: 11.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 7.7) has the edge on Jess Moors (Florida Atlantic: 7.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.2 ast, Game Score 6.0).
Disadvantages Why Miami may not
- Upset odds: Florida Atlantic win 895 of 5,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Miami lose by 6 or more.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Florida Atlantic about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Florida Atlantic 169th (22.7), Miami 267th (20.5) of 364.
- Weak spot: Miami rank 267th of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (20.5).
- Team matchup: Florida Atlantic have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Miami on paper, but Vivian Onugha (9.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 6.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -10.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 135.8 |
| Win chance | FAU n/a · MIA n/a | FAU 18% · MIA 82% |
| Moneyline | FAU +459 · MIA -459 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Miami 81, Florida Atlantic 70.
- 80% of simulations land between Florida Atlantic by 6 and Miami by 27.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
FAU Florida Atlantic
Every regular played last game.
MIA Miami
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| FAU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -10.9 277 | Net rating | +6.9 109 |
| 84.2 278 | Offensive rating | 98.3 77 |
| 95.1 258 | Defensive rating | 91.4 180 |
| +0.0 176 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 68 |
| 44.4% 208 | Effective FG% | 48.4% 92 |
| 46.8% 250 | Opponent eFG% | 46.4% 230 |
| 24.6 263 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.8 68 |
| 26.8% 299 | Offensive rebound % | 32.6% 132 |
| 30.1% 202 | 3-point % | 30.6% 174 |
| 72.9 103 | Pace | 71.8 149 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | 2025-26 | Florida Atlantic 47 @ Miami 79 | MIA |
| 2022-11-16 | 2022-23 | Florida Atlantic 42 @ Miami 75 | MIA |
| 2021-11-18 | 2021-22 | Florida Atlantic 46 @ Miami 56 | MIA |
| 2020-12-03 | 2020-21 | Florida Atlantic 61 @ Miami 73 | MIA |
| 2012-11-23 | 2012-13 | Florida Atlantic 61 @ Miami 76 | MIA |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works