Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 135.1
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why NC State can win
- Simulation: NC State win 4,330 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated NC State about 2.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: NC State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to NC State in our ratings.
- NC State's offense (103.5 points per 100 possessions, 35th in Division I) meets a Wofford defense that ranks 216th.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors NC State. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (61st of 364) meets the Wofford shooting defense (86th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit. Pace clash: NC State play fast (60th of 364 in pace), Wofford slow (333rd); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Khamil Pierre (NC State: 16.7 pts, 11.9 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 13.4) has the edge on Gabby Mundy (Wofford: 15.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 9.8).
Disadvantages Why NC State may not
- Upset odds: Wofford win 670 of 5,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations NC State lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: NC State rank 349th of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (17.6).
- Weak spot: NC State rank 259th of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Team matchup: a strength NC State may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (61st of 364) meets the Wofford shooting defense (86th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean NC State on paper, but Gabby Mundy (15.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 9.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NCSU -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 135.1 |
| Win chance | WOF n/a · NCSU n/a | WOF 13% · NCSU 87% |
| Moneyline | WOF +647 · NCSU -647 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: NC State 81, Wofford 69.
- 80% of simulations land between Wofford by 4 and NC State by 29.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
WOF Wofford
Every regular played last game.
NCSU NC State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| WOF | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -0.7 181 | Net rating | +13.0 58 |
| 92.0 168 | Offensive rating | 103.5 35 |
| 92.7 216 | Defensive rating | 90.6 160 |
| -0.7 295 | Strength of schedule | +1.8 33 |
| 43.3% 255 | Effective FG% | 49.6% 61 |
| 43.9% 86 | Opponent eFG% | 44.6% 122 |
| 19.1 50 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.3 11 |
| 30.2% 212 | Offensive rebound % | 31.0% 185 |
| 29.1% 245 | 3-point % | 31.4% 139 |
| 67.0 333 | Pace | 74.1 60 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-12 | 2021-22 | Wofford 57 @ NC State 90 | NCSU |
| 2016-11-12 | 2016-17 | Wofford 40 @ NC State 80 | NCSU |
| 2012-11-09 | 2012-13 | Wofford 45 @ NC State 85 | NCSU |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works