Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 125.3
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why NJIT can win
- Simulation: NJIT win 4,175 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to NJIT in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): NJIT 133rd (+3.7), Rider 295th (-13.3) of 364.
- Home court: NJIT play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Three-point shooting: NJIT 96th (32.5%), Rider 350th (25.0%) of 364.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors NJIT. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (176th of 364) meets the Rider defensive rebounding (227th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: At forward, Ava Locklear (NJIT: 8.9 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 8.1) has the edge on Kristina Ekofo (Rider: 11.7 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 5.5); best player against best player, Olivia Kulyk (NJIT: 14.6 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.0) has the edge on Aliya McIver (Rider: 9.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 7.6).
Disadvantages Why NJIT may not
- Upset odds: Rider win 825 of 5,000 simulations (17%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations NJIT lose by 5 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Rider 194th (22.1), NJIT 320th (18.9) of 364.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Rider about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Weak spot: NJIT rank 340th of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
- Team matchup: where Rider can push back. Their offensive rebounding (216th of 364) meets the NJIT defensive rebounding (304th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean NJIT on paper, but Aliya McIver (9.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 7.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NJIT -11.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 125.3 |
| Win chance | RID n/a · NJIT n/a | RID 16% · NJIT 84% |
| Moneyline | RID +506 · NJIT -506 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: NJIT 80, Rider 69.
- 80% of simulations land between Rider by 5 and NJIT by 27.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
RID Rider
Every regular played last game.
NJIT NJIT
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| RID | NJIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -13.3 295 | Net rating | +3.7 133 |
| 78.6 339 | Offensive rating | 96.2 109 |
| 91.9 193 | Defensive rating | 92.5 211 |
| -0.7 299 | Strength of schedule | -0.1 190 |
| 40.9% 317 | Effective FG% | 50.4% 46 |
| 43.9% 85 | Opponent eFG% | 42.1% 29 |
| 25.4 292 | Turnovers per 100 | 22.8 178 |
| 30.1% 216 | Offensive rebound % | 31.4% 176 |
| 25.0% 350 | 3-point % | 32.5% 96 |
| 67.6 316 | Pace | 68.0 306 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-15 | 2023-24 | Rider 57 @ NJIT 70 | NJIT |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022-23 | NJIT 68 @ Rider 60 | NJIT |
| 2021-12-01 | 2021-22 | NJIT 59 @ Rider 64 | RID |
| 2020-12-23 | 2020-21 | Rider 57 @ NJIT 53 | RID |
| 2018-11-28 | 2018-19 | NJIT 46 @ Rider 67 | RID |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works