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FUR

Furman @ South Florida

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · SoCon vs American · · Yuengling Center

USF
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 133.5

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
USFSouth Florida Bulls
76% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why South Florida can win

  1. Simulation: South Florida win 3,815 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Home court: South Florida play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to South Florida in our ratings.
  4. Strength of schedule: South Florida 18th (+2.3), Furman 259th (-0.5) of 364.
  5. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): South Florida 119th (+5.4), Furman 212th (-3.8) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: where South Florida can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (117th of 364) meets the Furman shooting defense (226th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (92nd of 364) meets the Furman defensive rebounding (149th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors South Florida. The closest: at guard, Alyssa Ervin (Furman: 13.8 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 9.0) is about even with Edyn Battle (South Florida: 14.6 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 8.9).

Disadvantages Why South Florida may not

  1. Upset odds: Furman win 1,185 of 5,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  2. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Furman 77th (25.0), South Florida 297th (19.7) of 364.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Furman about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations South Florida lose by 8 or more.
  5. Weak spot: South Florida rank 297th of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (19.7).
  6. Team matchup: where Furman can push back. Their offensive rebounding (95th of 364) meets the South Florida defensive rebounding (151st), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Clare Coyle (Furman: 14.8 pts, 9.1 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 13.3) has the edge on L'or Mputu (South Florida: 10.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 0.4 ast, Game Score 9.0).

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSF -7.9
Total pointsn/a133.5
Win chanceFUR n/a · USF n/aFUR 24% · USF 76%
MoneylineFUR +322 · USF -322 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: South Florida 79, Furman 71.
  • 80% of simulations land between Furman by 8 and South Florida by 24.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

FUR Furman

Every regular played last game.

USF South Florida

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

FURUSF
0-0Record0-0
-3.8 212Net rating+5.4 119
86.0 253Offensive rating97.0 98
89.8 143Defensive rating91.6 185
-0.5 259Strength of schedule+2.3 18
43.3% 251Effective FG%47.2% 117
46.4% 226Opponent eFG%43.4% 55
25.5 297Turnovers per 10021.3 114
34.1% 95Offensive rebound %34.1% 92
32.1% 1183-point %30.9% 161
72.6 113Pace72.6 115

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

24%Furman
76%South Florida

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)