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Green Bay @ #4 Duke

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Horizon vs ACC · · Cameron Indoor Stadium

DUKE
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
DUKEDuke Blue Devils
90% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetDUKE -15.1
Totaln/a131.2
Moneylinen/aGB +936
DUKE -936 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

DUKE 82, GB 68Typical score
GB by 1 to DUKE by 318 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Duke can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Duke about 4.7 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Duke in our ratings.
  3. Home court: Duke play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  4. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Duke 42nd (36.9%), Green Bay 334th (24.6%) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Duke. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (82nd of 364) meets the Green Bay shooting defense (95th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Toby Fournier (Duke: 17.3 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 13.6) has the edge on Jenna Guyer (Green Bay: 14.7 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 11.3).
  7. Simulation: Duke win 4,515 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Duke may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Duke lose by 1 or more.
  2. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Green Bay 35th (73.5%), Duke 142nd (69.7%) of 364.
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Duke may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (42nd of 364) meets the Green Bay defensive rebounding (35th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Duke on paper, but Jenna Guyer (14.7 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 11.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Green Bay win 485 of 5,000 simulations (10%). A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

GB Green Bay

Every regular played last game.

DUKE Duke

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

GBDUKE
0-0Record0-0
+11.7 71Net rating+19.9 23
98.5 74Offensive rating102.5 39
86.7 70Defensive rating82.6 17
-0.2 217Strength of schedule+4.0 1
49.6% 62Effective FG%48.7% 82
44.1% 95Opponent eFG%41.0% 11
19.0 44Turnovers per 10020.5 92
24.6% 334Offensive rebound %36.9% 42
32.9% 803-point %32.6% 89
68.9 279Pace72.3 133

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

10%Green Bay
90%Duke

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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