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SMC

Saint Mary's @ Stanford

NCAAW · · Maples Pavilion

STAN

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
STANStanford Cardinal
76% to win
ModelSMC 24%STAN 76%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSTAN -7.8
Totaln/a132.5
Moneylinen/aSMC +313
STAN -313 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
STAN 79, SMC 71
8 in 10 games
SMC by 8 to STAN by 24
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Stanford can win

  1. Home court: Stanford play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Stanford 85th (+9.3), Saint Mary's 192nd (-1.9) of 363.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Stanford 97th (20.8), Saint Mary's 308th (26.0) of 363.
  4. Strength of schedule: Stanford 49th (+2.0), Saint Mary's 211th (-0.3) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Stanford can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (103rd of 363) meets the Saint Mary's defensive rebounding (253rd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (99th of 363) meets the Saint Mary's shooting defense (207th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Courtney Ogden (Stanford: 12.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 9.8) has the edge on Abigail Shoff (Saint Mary's: 9.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 5.5).
  7. Simulation: Stanford win 3,790 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Stanford may not

  1. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Saint Mary's 54th (26.1), Stanford 292nd (19.8) of 363.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Stanford lose by 8 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Stanford rank 292nd of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (19.8).
  4. Weak spot: Stanford rank 255th of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
  5. Team matchup: Saint Mary's have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Stanford on paper, but Abigail Shoff (9.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 5.5) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Saint Mary's win 1,210 of 5,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

SMC Saint Mary's

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

STAN Stanford

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

SMCSTAN
0-0Record0-1
-1.9 192Net rating+9.3 85
87.6 236Offensive rating98.8 70
89.6 138Defensive rating89.4 133
-0.3 211Strength of schedule+2.0 49
45.8% 157Effective FG%48.0% 99
46.0% 207Opponent eFG%43.9% 86
26.0 308Turnovers per 10020.8 97
32.5% 141Offensive rebound %33.5% 103
28.8% 2603-point %29.5% 222
67.5 319Pace71.4 171

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Saint Mary's24%
76%Stanford

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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