21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango 🥭 Tip jar
Invite
UMES

Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · MEAC vs ACC · · John Paul Jones Arena

UVA
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 133.9

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
UVAVirginia Cavaliers
78% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Virginia can win

  1. Simulation: Virginia win 3,895 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Virginia 51st (+13.9), Maryland Eastern Shore 211th (-3.8) of 364.
  3. Home court: Virginia play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Virginia in our ratings.
  5. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Virginia 60th (19.6), Maryland Eastern Shore 339th (27.6) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: where Virginia can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (27th of 364) meets the Maryland Eastern Shore defensive rebounding (276th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kymora Johnson (Virginia: 19.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.9 ast, Game Score 14.9) has the edge on Ashanti Lynch (Maryland Eastern Shore: 11.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 6.8); at forward, Caitlin Weimar (Virginia: 7.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 8.0) has the edge on Lainey Allen (Maryland Eastern Shore: 8.1 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 6.1).

Disadvantages Why Virginia may not

  1. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Maryland Eastern Shore 20th (28.0), Virginia 285th (19.9) of 364.
  2. Upset odds: Maryland Eastern Shore win 1,105 of 5,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Virginia lose by 7 or more.
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Maryland Eastern Shore 16th (0.26), Virginia 186th (0.20) of 364.
  5. Weak spot: Virginia rank 285th of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (19.9).
  6. Team matchup: a strength Virginia may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (70th of 364) meets the Maryland Eastern Shore shooting defense (76th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean Virginia on paper, but Ashanti Lynch (11.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 6.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

Loading…

An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUVA -8.9
Total pointsn/a133.9
Win chanceUMES n/a · UVA n/aUMES 22% · UVA 78%
MoneylineUMES +352 · UVA -352 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Virginia 80, Maryland Eastern Shore 71.
  • 80% of simulations land between Maryland Eastern Shore by 7 and Virginia by 25.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

UMES Maryland Eastern Shore

Every regular played last game.

UVA Virginia

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

UMESUVA
0-0Record0-0
-3.8 211Net rating+13.9 51
81.6 311Offensive rating104.8 29
85.4 47Defensive rating90.9 168
-0.6 277Strength of schedule+1.6 40
39.9% 339Effective FG%49.3% 70
43.8% 76Opponent eFG%43.7% 69
27.6 339Turnovers per 10019.6 60
34.7% 77Offensive rebound %37.8% 27
27.4% 3103-point %32.4% 101
73.2 92Pace71.5 165

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-302025-26Maryland Eastern Shore 59 @ Virginia 92UVA
2024-12-172024-25Maryland Eastern Shore 64 @ Virginia 80UVA
2023-11-082023-24Maryland-Eastern Shore 52 @ Virginia 76UVA
2016-12-212016-17Maryland-Eastern Shore 50 @ Virginia 60UVA
2013-12-172013-14Maryland-Eastern Shore 46 @ Virginia 81UVA

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

22%Maryland Eastern Shore
78%Virginia

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat

    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)