Lipscomb @ #8 Vanderbilt
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · ASUN vs SEC · · Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
- Lipscomb Schedule and results
- Vanderbilt AP #8
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 140.7
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 4 times in 100.
Advantages Why Vanderbilt can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.7 points to Vanderbilt in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vanderbilt win 4,780 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Vanderbilt 8th (+25.9), Lipscomb 231st (-5.6) of 364.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Vanderbilt about 3.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Vanderbilt play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Team matchup: where Vanderbilt can take advantage. Their ball pressure (32nd of 364) meets the Lipscomb ball security (326th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (31st of 364) meets the Lipscomb defensive rebounding (184th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Mikayla Blakes (Vanderbilt: 27.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.5 ast, Game Score 20.4) has the edge on Molly Heard (Lipscomb: 14.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 10.4).
Disadvantages Why Vanderbilt may not
- Upset odds: Lipscomb win 220 of 5,000 simulations (4%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 4 times in 100.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Lipscomb 184th (68.5%), Vanderbilt 266th (66.3%) of 364.
- Weak spot: Vanderbilt rank 266th of 364 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (66.3%).
- Weak spot: Vanderbilt rank 252nd of 364 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (46.9%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Team matchup: where Lipscomb can push back. Their shooting efficiency (165th of 364) meets the Vanderbilt shooting defense (252nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Vanderbilt on paper, but Molly Heard (14.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 10.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | VAN -20.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 140.7 |
| Win chance | LIP n/a · VAN n/a | LIP 4% · VAN 96% |
| Moneyline | LIP +2198 · VAN -2198 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Vanderbilt 85, Lipscomb 65.
- 80% of simulations land between Vanderbilt by 4 and Vanderbilt by 35.
Still out?
Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
LIP Lipscomb
Every regular played last game.
VAN Vanderbilt
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| LIP | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -5.6 231 | Net rating | +25.9 8 |
| 83.3 292 | Offensive rating | 114.3 6 |
| 88.9 124 | Defensive rating | 88.3 104 |
| -0.9 321 | Strength of schedule | +2.3 16 |
| 45.5% 165 | Effective FG% | 53.8% 11 |
| 43.3% 51 | Opponent eFG% | 46.9% 252 |
| 26.9 326 | Turnovers per 100 | 18.4 27 |
| 24.2% 337 | Offensive rebound % | 37.5% 31 |
| 30.0% 205 | 3-point % | 36.3% 15 |
| 70.9 194 | Pace | 73.8 69 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | Lipscomb 50 @ Vanderbilt 102 | VAN |
| 2023-12-17 | 2023-24 | Lipscomb 50 @ Vanderbilt 72 | VAN |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022-23 | Lipscomb 71 @ Vanderbilt 72 | VAN |
| 2017-12-28 | 2017-18 | Lipscomb 82 @ Vanderbilt 92 | VAN |
| 2012-11-12 | 2012-13 | Vanderbilt 62 @ Lipscomb 45 | VAN |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works