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Seattle U @ New Mexico

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · WCC vs Mountain West · · The Pit

UNM
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 132.8

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
UNMNew Mexico Lobos
94% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why New Mexico can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.7 points to New Mexico in our ratings.
  2. Simulation: New Mexico win 4,700 of 5,000 simulated games.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): New Mexico 81st (+9.5), Seattle U 354th (-26.4) of 364.
  4. New Mexico's offense (96.1 points per 100 possessions, 115th in Division I) meets a Seattle U defense that ranks 354th.
  5. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.9 points to New Mexico in our ratings.
  6. Team matchup: where New Mexico can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (80th of 364) meets the Seattle U defensive rebounding (314th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (133rd of 364) meets the Seattle U shooting defense (346th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  7. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors New Mexico. The closest: at forward, Tamia Stricklin (Seattle U: 10.4 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 6.4) is about even with Clarissa Craig (New Mexico: 6.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 0.6 ast, Game Score 5.7).

Disadvantages Why New Mexico may not

  1. Upset odds: Seattle U win 300 of 5,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Seattle U about 0.8 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Weak spot: New Mexico rank 336th of 364 in strength of schedule (-1.1).
  4. Weak spot: New Mexico rank 333rd of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
  5. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Seattle U 204th (0.20), New Mexico 333rd (0.16) of 364.
  6. Team matchup: Seattle U have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Ella Brubaker (Seattle U: 15.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.4) has the edge on Cacia Antonio (New Mexico: 10.3 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 6.9).

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUNM -18.2
Total pointsn/a132.8
Win chanceSEA n/a · UNM n/aSEA 6% · UNM 94%
MoneylineSEA +1554 · UNM -1554 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: New Mexico 84, Seattle U 66.
  • 80% of simulations land between New Mexico by 2 and New Mexico by 34.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

SEA Seattle U

Every regular played last game.

UNM New Mexico

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

SEAUNM
0-0Record0-0
-26.4 354Net rating+9.5 81
79.6 330Offensive rating96.1 115
106.0 354Defensive rating86.6 65
-0.6 269Strength of schedule-1.1 336
41.4% 308Effective FG%46.5% 133
50.5% 346Opponent eFG%44.9% 142
24.5 256Turnovers per 10021.0 108
23.3% 344Offensive rebound %34.6% 80
26.9% 3203-point %30.7% 171
73.6 76Pace70.1 234

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

6%Seattle U
94%New Mexico

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)