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San Diego @ New Mexico State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · WCC vs Conference USA · · Pan American Center

NMSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 128.6

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
NMSUNew Mexico State Aggies
57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why New Mexico State can win

  1. Home court: New Mexico State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Simulation: New Mexico State win 2,840 of 5,000 simulated games.
  3. Relative strength: New Mexico State rank 131st of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (23.5).
  4. Relative strength: New Mexico State rank 153rd of 364 in strength of schedule (+0.2).
  5. Relative strength: New Mexico State rank 248th of 364 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (66.6%).
  6. Team matchup: where New Mexico State can take advantage. Their ball pressure (131st of 364) meets the San Diego ball security (290th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  7. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors New Mexico State. The closest: best player against best player, Lucia Yenes (New Mexico State: 12.6 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 7.1) is about even with Kylie Ray (San Diego: 15.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.7 ast, Game Score 6.3).

Disadvantages Why New Mexico State may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to San Diego in our ratings.
  2. Upset odds: San Diego win 2,160 of 5,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated San Diego about 0.9 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to San Diego in our ratings.
  5. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations New Mexico State lose by 14 or more.
  6. Team matchup: where San Diego can push back. Their offensive rebounding (81st of 364) meets the New Mexico State defensive rebounding (248th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (278th of 364) meets the New Mexico State ball security (351st): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean New Mexico State on paper, but Kylie Ray (15.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.7 ast, Game Score 6.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetNMSU -2.1
Total pointsn/a128.6
Win chanceUSD n/a · NMSU n/aUSD 43% · NMSU 57%
MoneylineUSD +131 · NMSU -131 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: New Mexico State 76, San Diego 74.
  • 80% of simulations land between San Diego by 14 and New Mexico State by 18.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

USD San Diego

Every regular played last game.

NMSU New Mexico State

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

USDNMSU
0-0Record0-0
-12.6 292Net rating-17.6 330
81.0 316Offensive rating77.2 345
93.6 231Defensive rating94.8 252
-0.2 207Strength of schedule+0.2 153
39.3% 342Effective FG%43.0% 266
45.3% 164Opponent eFG%47.0% 255
25.3 290Turnovers per 10028.6 351
34.6% 81Offensive rebound %27.7% 284
26.4% 3293-point %27.7% 301
69.6 254Pace72.2 135

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-242025-26New Mexico State 48 @ San Diego 57USD
2022-12-032022-23New Mexico State 57 @ San Diego 52NMSU

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

43%San Diego
57%New Mexico State

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)