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Grambling @ Iowa State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs Big 12 · · Hilton Coliseum

ISU
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 141.1

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
ISUIowa State Cyclones
82% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Advantages Why Iowa State can win

  1. Simulation: Iowa State win 4,095 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Iowa State 24th (+19.6), Grambling 244th (-6.9) of 364.
  3. Home court: Iowa State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  4. Three-point shooting: Iowa State 17th (35.8%), Grambling 361st (22.9%) of 364.
  5. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Iowa State about 2.1 points stronger over recent games.
  6. Team matchup: where Iowa State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (8th of 364) meets the Grambling shooting defense (128th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (239th of 364) meets the Grambling defensive rebounding (338th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  7. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Audi Crooks (Iowa State: 25.8 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 19.9) has the edge on Shaniah Nunn (Grambling: 12.3 pts, 7.9 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 9.2); at guard, Jada Williams (Iowa State: 15.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 7.7 ast, Game Score 11.1) has the edge on Alisha Murray (Grambling: 6.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 5.7).

Disadvantages Why Iowa State may not

  1. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grambling 11th (29.5), Iowa State 283rd (20.0) of 364.
  2. Upset odds: Grambling win 905 of 5,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Iowa State lose by 6 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Iowa State rank 283rd of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (20.0).
  5. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  6. Team matchup: Grambling have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean Iowa State on paper, but Shaniah Nunn (12.3 pts, 7.9 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 9.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup. Answers come only from the numbers on this page.

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An AI reads this page for you and can get things wrong; the numbers above are the source. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetISU -10.3
Total pointsn/a141.1
Win chanceGRAM n/a · ISU n/aGRAM 18% · ISU 82%
MoneylineGRAM +451 · ISU -451 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Iowa State 80, Grambling 70.
  • 80% of simulations land between Grambling by 6 and Iowa State by 27.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Still out?

Women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

GRAM Grambling

Every regular played last game.

ISU Iowa State

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

GRAMISU
0-0Record0-0
-6.9 244Net rating+19.6 24
80.2 323Offensive rating111.2 9
87.1 79Defensive rating91.6 186
-1.1 333Strength of schedule+0.8 86
38.1% 352Effective FG%54.3% 8
44.7% 128Opponent eFG%45.4% 170
25.0 278Turnovers per 10017.2 8
36.7% 45Offensive rebound %29.6% 239
22.9% 3613-point %35.8% 17
75.1 44Pace73.5 85

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12 points in a typical NCAAW game).

18%Grambling
82%Iowa State

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 11,204 Division I games since 2020-21. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)