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UAPB

Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tarleton State

NCAAW · · EECU Center

TAR

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
TARTarleton State Texans
69% to win
ModelUAPB 31%TAR 69%

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetTAR -5.4
Totaln/a133.4
Moneylinen/aUAPB +224
TAR -224 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

TAR 78, UAPB 72Typical score
UAPB by 10 to TAR by 228 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Tarleton State can win

  1. Home court: Tarleton State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Tarleton State 193rd (-0.2), Arkansas-Pine Bluff 359th (-2.1) of 363.
  3. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Tarleton State 104th (71.2%), Arkansas-Pine Bluff 338th (62.6%) of 363.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Tarleton State in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Tarleton State can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (196th of 363) meets the Arkansas-Pine Bluff defensive rebounding (338th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Tarleton State. The closest: at forward, Shadasia Brackens (Tarleton State: 8.8 pts, 6.4 reb, 0.6 ast, Game Score 6.8) is about even with Khaniah Gardner (Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 8.6 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 6.4).
  7. Simulation: Tarleton State win 3,460 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Tarleton State may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Tarleton State lose by 10 or more.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Arkansas-Pine Bluff about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.5 points to Arkansas-Pine Bluff in our ratings.
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Arkansas-Pine Bluff 159th (0.21), Tarleton State 243rd (0.19) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Arkansas-Pine Bluff can push back. Their ball pressure (85th of 363) meets the Tarleton State ball security (245th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Tarleton State on paper, but Jailah Pelly (12.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.1 ast, Game Score 8.5) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Arkansas-Pine Bluff win 1,540 of 5,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

UAPB Arkansas-Pine Bluff

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

TAR Tarleton State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UAPBTAR
0-1Record0-0
-11.9 288Net rating-4.2 220
83.4 289Offensive rating87.2 242
95.3 261Defensive rating91.4 183
-2.1 359Strength of schedule-0.2 193
42.2% 289Effective FG%43.9% 233
47.0% 257Opponent eFG%45.6% 187
25.9 304Turnovers per 10024.1 245
33.9% 98Offensive rebound %30.7% 196
28.7% 2673-point %30.6% 175
72.3 129Pace72.2 137

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

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31%Arkansas-Pine Bluff
69%Tarleton State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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