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ARST

Arkansas State @ Ball State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Sun Belt vs MAC · · Worthen Arena

BALL
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
BALLBall State Cardinals
62% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetBALL -3.5
Totaln/a145.6
Moneylinen/aARST +166
BALL -166 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

BALL 77, ARST 73Typical score
ARST by 12 to BALL by 208 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Ball State can win

  1. Home court: Ball State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Ball State 59th (72.9%), Arkansas State 340th (62.2%) of 364.
  3. Three-point shooting: Ball State 62nd (33.8%), Arkansas State 212th (29.8%) of 364.
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Ball State 121st (0.22), Arkansas State 297th (0.17) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: where Ball State can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (72nd of 364) meets the Arkansas State defensive rebounding (340th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (23rd of 364) meets the Arkansas State shooting defense (176th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Bree Salenbien (Ball State: 15.8 pts, 7.4 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 13.1) has the edge on Crislyn Rose (Arkansas State: 11.2 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.6 ast, Game Score 7.7).
  7. Simulation: Ball State win 3,120 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Ball State may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Arkansas State in our ratings.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Ball State lose by 12 or more.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Arkansas State about 0.8 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Weak spot: Ball State rank 252nd of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (20.9).
  5. Team matchup: where Arkansas State can push back. Their ball pressure (6th of 364) meets the Ball State ball security (166th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Ball State on paper, but Crislyn Rose (11.2 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.6 ast, Game Score 7.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Arkansas State win 1,880 of 5,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

ARST Arkansas State

Every regular played last game.

BALL Ball State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

ARSTBALL
0-0Record0-0
+11.4 72Net rating+13.7 53
95.7 118Offensive rating101.6 46
84.3 33Defensive rating87.9 93
+0.1 161Strength of schedule-0.2 212
46.1% 150Effective FG%51.6% 23
45.4% 176Opponent eFG%43.0% 48
22.0 140Turnovers per 10022.6 166
35.0% 74Offensive rebound %35.1% 72
29.8% 2123-point %33.8% 62
79.2 4Pace76.2 26

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-032025-26Ball State 68 @ Arkansas State 66BALL

What if?

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38%Arkansas State
62%Ball State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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