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STMN

St. Thomas @ Northern Iowa

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Summit vs Missouri Valley · · McLeod Center

UNI
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UNINorthern Iowa Panthers
73% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUNI -6.9
Totaln/a131.2
Moneylinen/aSTMN +269
UNI -269 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

UNI 79, STMN 72Typical score
STMN by 9 to UNI by 238 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Northern Iowa can win

  1. Home court: Northern Iowa play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Northern Iowa's offense (95.4 points per 100 possessions, 125th in Division I) meets a St. Thomas defense that ranks 259th.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Northern Iowa 121st (+5.0), St. Thomas 205th (-3.0) of 364.
  4. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Northern Iowa 66th (19.8), St. Thomas 236th (24.0) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: where Northern Iowa can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (101st of 364) meets the St. Thomas shooting defense (227th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: At guard, Jenna Twedt (Northern Iowa: 14.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 8.7) has the edge on Jada Hood (St. Thomas: 9.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 6.4); best player against best player, Ryley Goebel (Northern Iowa: 14.2 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 13.6) has the edge on Alyssa Sand (St. Thomas: 14.2 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 12.2).
  7. Simulation: Northern Iowa win 3,645 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Northern Iowa may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated St. Thomas about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Northern Iowa lose by 9 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Northern Iowa rank 309th of 364 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (26.3%).
  4. Weak spot: Northern Iowa rank 279th of 364 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (20.1).
  5. Team matchup: St. Thomas have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Northern Iowa on paper, but Alyssa Sand (14.2 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 12.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: St. Thomas win 1,355 of 5,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

STMN St. Thomas

Every regular played last game.

UNI Northern Iowa

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

STMNUNI
0-0Record0-0
-3.0 205Net rating+5.0 121
92.2 162Offensive rating95.4 125
95.2 259Defensive rating90.5 157
-0.3 224Strength of schedule+0.2 151
47.7% 104Effective FG%47.8% 101
46.4% 227Opponent eFG%44.6% 119
24.0 236Turnovers per 10019.8 66
28.8% 263Offensive rebound %26.3% 309
30.5% 1833-point %34.1% 54
67.6 313Pace71.1 179

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 3 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-12-212025-26Northern Iowa 58 @ St. Thomas 40UNI
2022-11-072022-23St. Thomas - Minnesota 46 @ Northern Iowa 58UNI
2021-12-012021-22Northern Iowa 102 @ St. Thomas - Minnesota 62UNI

What if?

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27%St. Thomas
73%Northern Iowa

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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