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UNA

North Alabama @ Mississippi State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · WAC vs SEC · · Humphrey Coliseum

MSST
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MSSTMississippi State Bulldogs
66% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMSST -4.9
Totaln/a138.5
Moneylinen/aUNA +196
MSST -196 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

MSST 78, UNA 73Typical score
UNA by 12 to MSST by 218 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Mississippi State can win

  1. Home court: Mississippi State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Mississippi State 76th (+10.5), North Alabama 198th (-2.1) of 364.
  3. Strength of schedule: Mississippi State 53rd (+1.4), North Alabama 316th (-0.9) of 364.
  4. Mississippi State's offense (101.6 points per 100 possessions, 45th in Division I) meets a North Alabama defense that ranks 165th.
  5. Team matchup: where Mississippi State can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (35th of 364) meets the North Alabama defensive rebounding (97th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Favour Nwaedozi (Mississippi State: 12.2 pts, 10.0 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 11.4) has the edge on Alexsandra Alvarado (North Alabama: 13.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.4 ast, Game Score 8.1).
  7. Simulation: Mississippi State win 3,310 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Mississippi State may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Mississippi State lose by 12 or more.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated North Alabama about 0.6 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.5 points to North Alabama in our ratings.
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Mississippi State may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (90th of 364) meets the North Alabama shooting defense (71st), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Mississippi State on paper, but Alexsandra Alvarado (13.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.4 ast, Game Score 8.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: North Alabama win 1,690 of 5,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

UNA North Alabama

Every regular played last game.

MSST Mississippi State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

UNAMSST
0-0Record0-0
-2.1 198Net rating+10.5 76
88.8 219Offensive rating101.6 45
90.8 165Defensive rating91.1 174
-0.9 316Strength of schedule+1.4 53
45.0% 183Effective FG%48.5% 90
43.8% 71Opponent eFG%46.3% 222
22.1 142Turnovers per 10021.0 106
29.5% 241Offensive rebound %37.3% 35
28.8% 2623-point %32.0% 122
72.1 139Pace73.7 74

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2022-11-112022-23North Alabama 40 @ Mississippi State 77MSST

What if?

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34%North Alabama
66%Mississippi State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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