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Valparaiso @ Michigan State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Missouri Valley vs Big Ten · · Breslin Center

MSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MSUMichigan State Spartans
99% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMSU -26.8
Totaln/a144.6
Moneylinen/aVAL +9233
MSU -9233 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

MSU 88, VAL 62Typical score
MSU by 10 to MSU by 418 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Michigan State can win

  1. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Michigan State 18th (+21.6), Valparaiso 359th (-33.9) of 364.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 13.3 points to Michigan State in our ratings.
  3. Michigan State's offense (111.3 points per 100 possessions, 8th in Division I) meets a Valparaiso defense that ranks 355th.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.3 points to Michigan State in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Michigan State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (15th of 364) meets the Valparaiso shooting defense (326th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (34th of 364) meets the Valparaiso ball security (258th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Grace VanSlooten (Michigan State: 15.1 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 13.0) has the edge on Milana Nenadic (Valparaiso: 9.4 pts, 5.3 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 4.7); best player against best player, Kennedy Blair (Michigan State: 14.5 pts, 7.1 reb, 5.2 ast, Game Score 13.2) has the edge on Fiona Connolly (Valparaiso: 12.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 5.5).
  7. Simulation: Michigan State win 4,945 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Michigan State may not

  1. Weak spot: Michigan State rank 310th of 364 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (48.8%).
  2. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  3. Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  4. Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
  5. Team matchup: Valparaiso have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Michigan State on paper, but Fiona Connolly (12.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 5.5) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Valparaiso win 55 of 5,000 simulations (1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

VAL Valparaiso

Every regular played last game.

MSU Michigan State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

VALMSU
0-0Record0-0
-33.9 359Net rating+21.6 18
72.7 358Offensive rating111.3 8
106.6 355Defensive rating89.6 139
-0.0 186Strength of schedule+1.6 43
37.7% 357Effective FG%53.4% 15
49.6% 326Opponent eFG%48.8% 310
24.5 258Turnovers per 10017.8 18
23.1% 346Offensive rebound %34.4% 84
25.0% 3493-point %36.3% 14
76.5 21Pace73.8 70

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2021-11-162021-22Valparaiso 62 @ Michigan State 73MSU

What if?

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1%Valparaiso
99%Michigan State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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