21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
DEN

Denver @ Air Force

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · WCC vs Mountain West · · Clune Arena

AF
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
AFAir Force Falcons
66% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetAF -4.8
Totaln/a129.4
Moneylinen/aDEN +197
AF -197 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

AF 78, DEN 73Typical score
DEN by 11 to AF by 228 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Air Force can win

  1. Home court: Air Force play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Air Force 223rd (-4.7), Denver 302nd (-14.0) of 364.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Air Force 38th (18.8), Denver 229th (23.9) of 364.
  4. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Air Force 33rd (73.6%), Denver 232nd (66.8%) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: where Air Force can take advantage. Their ball pressure (94th of 364) meets the Denver ball security (229th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Air Force. The closest: at forward, Emily Adams (Air Force: 9.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 5.4) is about even with Brooke Murrell (Denver: 5.8 pts, 5.8 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 5.3).
  7. Simulation: Air Force win 3,320 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Air Force may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Denver about 1.5 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Air Force lose by 11 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Air Force rank 342nd of 364 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (50.1%).
  4. Weak spot: Air Force rank 332nd of 364 in effective shooting (eFG%) (40.5%).
  5. Team matchup: where Denver can push back. Their shooting efficiency (257th of 364) meets the Air Force shooting defense (342nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Air Force on paper, but Coryn Watts (19.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 10.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Denver win 1,680 of 5,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

DEN Denver

Every regular played last game.

AF Air Force

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

DENAF
0-0Record0-0
-14.0 302Net rating-4.7 223
83.3 290Offensive rating88.0 234
97.4 289Defensive rating92.7 215
+0.4 127Strength of schedule+0.0 182
43.2% 257Effective FG%40.5% 332
49.9% 340Opponent eFG%50.1% 342
23.9 229Turnovers per 10018.8 38
25.1% 331Offensive rebound %29.8% 229
28.6% 2753-point %27.8% 295
70.1 236Pace68.3 299

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-032025-26Air Force 59 @ Denver 50AF
2023-11-062023-24Denver 63 @ Air Force 65AF
2022-11-072022-23Air Force 67 @ Denver 63AF
2021-11-092021-22Denver 62 @ Air Force 79AF
2020-12-202020-21Air Force 82 @ Denver 79AF

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

34%Denver
66%Air Force

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat