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USC

#3 USC vs UNLV

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Big Ten vs Mountain West · · T-Mobile Arena · Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas

UNLV
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under yet · our total 131.1

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
USCUSC Trojans
53% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSC -1
Totaln/a131.1
Moneylinen/aUSC -113
UNLV +113 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

UNLV 75, USC 76Typical score
USC by 17 to UNLV by 168 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why USC can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated USC about 3.2 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: USC 132nd (23.5), UNLV 332nd (18.4) of 364.
  3. AP poll: USC are ranked No. 3; UNLV are unranked.
  4. Strength of schedule: USC 6th (+3.4), UNLV 132nd (+0.3) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors USC. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (126th of 364) meets the UNLV shooting defense (138th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jazzy Davidson (USC: 17.9 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.1 ast, Game Score 12.9) has the edge on Meadow Roland (UNLV: 15.0 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 11.7).
  7. Simulation: USC win 2,650 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why USC may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations USC lose by 16 or more.
  2. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): UNLV 45th (73.2%), USC 209th (67.8%) of 364.
  3. Three-point shooting: UNLV 60th (33.8%), USC 166th (30.8%) of 364.
  4. Weak spot: USC rank 264th of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
  5. Team matchup: a strength USC may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (126th of 364) meets the UNLV shooting defense (138th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean USC on paper, but Meadow Roland (15.0 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 11.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: UNLV win 2,350 of 5,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

USC USC

Every regular played last game.

UNLV UNLV

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

USCUNLV
0-0Record0-0
+7.6 102Net rating+8.5 92
96.1 114Offensive rating99.7 63
88.5 110Defensive rating91.2 176
+3.4 6Strength of schedule+0.3 132
46.9% 126Effective FG%48.1% 96
44.2% 99Opponent eFG%44.9% 138
20.1 77Turnovers per 10019.0 45
32.0% 159Offensive rebound %29.6% 238
30.8% 1663-point %33.8% 60
72.5 119Pace68.9 281

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 4 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2019-12-142019-20UNLV 54 @ USC 75USC
2018-12-012018-19USC 86 @ UNLV 72USC
2016-11-192016-17USC 66 @ UNLV 77UNLV
2015-12-062015-16UNLV 42 @ USC 73USC

What if?

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53%USC
47%UNLV

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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