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SLU

Saint Louis @ Middle Tennessee

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Atlantic 10 vs Conference USA · · Murphy Center

MTSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MTSUMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders
79% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMTSU -9.2
Totaln/a129.5
Moneylinen/aSLU +382
MTSU -382 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

MTSU 80, SLU 70Typical score
SLU by 7 to MTSU by 258 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Advantages Why Middle Tennessee can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Middle Tennessee in our ratings.
  2. Home court: Middle Tennessee play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Middle Tennessee 147th (+2.3), Saint Louis 250th (-7.7) of 364.
  4. Three-point shooting: Middle Tennessee 93rd (32.6%), Saint Louis 346th (25.4%) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: where Middle Tennessee can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (152nd of 364) meets the Saint Louis defensive rebounding (312th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (120th of 364) meets the Saint Louis ball security (260th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: Saint Louis play fast (88th of 364 in pace), Middle Tennessee slow (325th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Middle Tennessee. The closest: best player against best player, Alyssa Koerkenmeier (Saint Louis: 12.1 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 11.4) is about even with Blair Baugus (Middle Tennessee: 13.5 pts, 9.2 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 11.0).
  7. Simulation: Middle Tennessee win 3,965 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Middle Tennessee may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Saint Louis about 0.9 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Middle Tennessee lose by 7 or more.
  3. Strength of schedule: Saint Louis 165th (+0.1), Middle Tennessee 260th (-0.5) of 364.
  4. Weak spot: Middle Tennessee rank 284th of 364 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (25.1).
  5. Team matchup: where Saint Louis can push back. Their ball pressure (166th of 364) meets the Middle Tennessee ball security (284th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Middle Tennessee on paper, but Alyssa Koerkenmeier (12.1 pts, 9.5 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 11.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Saint Louis win 1,035 of 5,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

SLU Saint Louis

Every regular played last game.

MTSU Middle Tennessee

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

SLUMTSU
0-0Record0-0
-7.7 250Net rating+2.3 147
84.7 269Offensive rating92.1 165
92.3 205Defensive rating89.8 142
+0.1 165Strength of schedule-0.5 260
40.7% 324Effective FG%46.5% 134
44.2% 100Opponent eFG%45.5% 183
24.5 260Turnovers per 10025.1 284
32.5% 137Offensive rebound %32.1% 152
25.4% 3463-point %32.6% 93
73.4 88Pace67.3 325

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-062025-26Middle Tennessee 73 @ Saint Louis 55MTSU

What if?

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21%Saint Louis
79%Middle Tennessee

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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