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LAF

Lafayette @ St. John's

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Patriot vs Big East · · Carnesecca Arena

SJU
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under yet · our total 122.7

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
SJUSt. John's Red Storm
63% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSJU -4.1
Totaln/a122.7
Moneylinen/aLAF +174
SJU -174 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

SJU 77, LAF 73Typical score
LAF by 13 to SJU by 218 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why St. John's can win

  1. Home court: St. John's play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: St. John's 106th (+0.6), Lafayette 322nd (-0.9) of 364.
  3. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): St. John's 108th (70.9%), Lafayette 335th (62.9%) of 364.
  4. St. John's's offense (91.4 points per 100 possessions, 179th in Division I) meets a Lafayette defense that ranks 260th.
  5. Team matchup: where St. John's can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (231st of 364) meets the Lafayette defensive rebounding (335th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Sa'Mya Wyatt (St. John's: 10.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 7.3) has the edge on Maddison Krug (Lafayette: 3.8 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 6.0).
  7. Simulation: St. John's win 3,170 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why St. John's may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Lafayette about 2.0 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Lafayette 102nd (20.8), St. John's 309th (26.0) of 364.
  3. Three-point shooting: Lafayette 51st (34.2%), St. John's 238th (29.3%) of 364.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations St. John's lose by 13 or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength St. John's may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (76th of 364) meets the Lafayette shooting defense (127th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Teresa Kiewiet (Lafayette: 16.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.2) has the edge on Brooke Moore (St. John's: 11.7 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 8.9).
  7. Upset odds: Lafayette win 1,830 of 5,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

LAF Lafayette

Every regular played last game.

SJU St. John's

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

LAFSJU
0-0Record0-0
-6.1 235Net rating+0.3 167
89.1 212Offensive rating91.4 179
95.2 260Defensive rating91.1 175
-0.9 322Strength of schedule+0.6 106
45.0% 185Effective FG%49.0% 76
44.7% 127Opponent eFG%44.4% 108
20.8 102Turnovers per 10026.0 309
23.8% 339Offensive rebound %29.7% 231
34.2% 513-point %29.3% 238
66.1 341Pace67.2 327

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2019-11-132019-20Lafayette 44 @ St. John's 76SJU
2016-12-032016-17Lafayette 46 @ St. John's 64SJU

What if?

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37%Lafayette
63%St. John's

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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