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CBU

California Baptist @ Oregon State

NCAAW · · Gill Coliseum

ORST

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
ORSTOregon State Beavers
70% to win
ModelCBU 30%ORST 70%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetORST -5.8
Totaln/a136
Moneylinen/aCBU +228
ORST -228 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
ORST 78, CBU 72
8 in 10 games
CBU by 10 to ORST by 22
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Oregon State can win

  1. Home court: Oregon State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Oregon State about 1.0 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Strength of schedule: Oregon State 81st (+1.1), California Baptist 206th (-0.3) of 363.
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Oregon State 142nd (0.21), California Baptist 349th (0.15) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Oregon State. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (77th of 363) meets the California Baptist shooting defense (56th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit. Pace clash: California Baptist play fast (41st of 363 in pace), Oregon State slow (304th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Oregon State, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Jenna Villa (14.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 10.4) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Oregon State win 3,475 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Oregon State may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to California Baptist in our ratings.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Oregon State lose by 10 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Oregon State rank 357th of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (16.4).
  4. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: California Baptist 276th (20.4), Oregon State 357th (16.4) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Oregon State may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (77th of 363) meets the California Baptist shooting defense (56th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Filipa Barros (California Baptist: 11.0 pts, 9.9 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 12.9) has the edge on Jenna Villa (Oregon State: 14.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 10.4); at forward, Emma Johansson (California Baptist: 10.4 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 8.2) has the edge on Lizzy Williamson (Oregon State: 6.5 pts, 5.7 reb, 0.7 ast, Game Score 6.2).
  7. Upset odds: California Baptist win 1,525 of 5,000 simulations (31%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

CBU California Baptist

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

ORST Oregon State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CBUORST
0-0Record0-0
+6.3 112Net rating+6.8 109
95.4 125Offensive rating97.6 82
89.0 124Defensive rating90.8 168
-0.3 206Strength of schedule+1.1 81
47.5% 104Effective FG%49.0% 77
43.3% 56Opponent eFG%42.8% 47
19.6 62Turnovers per 10021.3 114
28.1% 278Offensive rebound %32.4% 145
30.2% 1993-point %33.3% 70
75.4 41Pace68.0 304

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • California Baptist 72 @ Oregon State 80Nov 17, 2021

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

California Baptist31%
70%Oregon State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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