Sacramento State @ UT Arlington
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Big West vs WAC · · College Park Center
- Sacramento State Big West 0-0, 7th · 0-0 overall
- UT Arlington UAC 0-0, 8th · 0-0 overall
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAC -0.9 |
| Total | n/a | 130.9 |
| Moneyline | n/a | SAC -110 UTA +110 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why Sacramento State can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.6 points to Sacramento State in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to Sacramento State in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Sacramento State about 1.1 points stronger over recent games.
- Strength: Sacramento State rank 66th of 364 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (43.7%).
- Team matchup: where Sacramento State can take advantage. Their ball pressure (110th of 364) meets the UT Arlington ball security (330th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (112th of 364) meets the UT Arlington defensive rebounding (243rd): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: UT Arlington play fast (48th of 364 in pace), Sacramento State slow (248th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: no key position favors Sacramento State, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Natalie Picton (13.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 7.8) leading the way.
- Simulation: Sacramento State win 2,620 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Sacramento State may not
- Home court: UT Arlington play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): UT Arlington 21st (0.26), Sacramento State 346th (0.15) of 364.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Sacramento State lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Sacramento State rank 346th of 364 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.15).
- Team matchup: where UT Arlington can push back. Their ball pressure (97th of 364) meets the Sacramento State ball security (324th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kira Reynolds (UT Arlington: 13.0 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 10.4) has the edge on Natalie Picton (Sacramento State: 13.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 7.8).
- Upset odds: UT Arlington win 2,380 of 5,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
SAC Sacramento State
Every regular played last game.
UTA UT Arlington
Every regular played last game.
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| SAC | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -2.7 202 | Net rating | -8.3 256 |
| 86.2 252 | Offensive rating | 81.8 310 |
| 88.9 122 | Defensive rating | 90.2 149 |
| -0.3 231 | Strength of schedule | -0.0 189 |
| 45.0% 184 | Effective FG% | 42.9% 270 |
| 43.7% 66 | Opponent eFG% | 44.4% 110 |
| 26.8 324 | Turnovers per 100 | 27.1 330 |
| 33.2% 112 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 264 |
| 30.9% 164 | 3-point % | 30.7% 172 |
| 69.7 248 | Pace | 74.8 48 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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