Alcorn State @ #19 Ole Miss
Women's college basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs SEC · · The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
- Alcorn State SWAC 0-0, 4th · 0-0 overall
- Ole Miss AP #19 · SEC 0-0, 11th · 0-0 overall
Game day
No over/under yet · our total 130.9
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MISS -15.8 |
| Total | n/a | 130.9 |
| Moneyline | n/a | ALCN +1044 MISS -1044 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why Ole Miss can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to Ole Miss in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Ole Miss 29th (+18.2), Alcorn State 258th (-8.4) of 364.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Ole Miss about 3.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Ole Miss play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Team matchup: where Ole Miss can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (11th of 364) meets the Alcorn State defensive rebounding (331st), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (69th of 364) meets the Alcorn State ball security (317th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Cotie McMahon (Ole Miss: 19.5 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 12.9) has the edge on Nakia Cheatham (Alcorn State: 13.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 10.7).
- Simulation: Ole Miss win 4,565 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Ole Miss may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Ole Miss lose by 1 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
- Team matchup: a strength Ole Miss may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (108th of 364) meets the Alcorn State shooting defense (56th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Ole Miss on paper, but Nakia Cheatham (13.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 10.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Alcorn State win 435 of 5,000 simulations (9%). A 91% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
ALCN Alcorn State
Every regular played last game.
MISS Ole Miss
Every regular played last game.
Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| ALCN | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -8.4 258 | Net rating | +18.2 29 |
| 78.8 337 | Offensive rating | 105.1 28 |
| 87.3 83 | Defensive rating | 86.8 72 |
| -1.5 358 | Strength of schedule | +2.4 15 |
| 41.0% 314 | Effective FG% | 47.4% 108 |
| 43.5% 56 | Opponent eFG% | 44.9% 146 |
| 26.3 317 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.7 65 |
| 29.1% 251 | Offensive rebound % | 40.0% 11 |
| 28.2% 287 | 3-point % | 30.0% 204 |
| 70.2 231 | Pace | 71.6 160 |
Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | Alcorn State 44 @ Ole Miss 64 | MISS |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | Alcorn State 41 @ Ole Miss 93 | MISS |
| 2023-12-30 | 2023-24 | Alcorn State 37 @ Ole Miss 76 | MISS |
| 2020-12-08 | 2020-21 | Alcorn State 48 @ Ole Miss 104 | MISS |
| 2019-11-29 | 2019-20 | Alcorn State 55 @ Ole Miss 73 (neutral) | MISS |
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