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UIW

Incarnate Word @ Tulsa

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Southland vs American · · Reynolds Center

TLSA
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
TLSATulsa Golden Hurricane
74% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetTLSA -7.7
Totaln/a137
Moneylinen/aUIW +288
TLSA -288 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

TLSA 79, UIW 71Typical score
UIW by 9 to TLSA by 238 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Tulsa can win

  1. Home court: Tulsa play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Tulsa 140th (+2.6), Incarnate Word 276th (-10.8) of 364.
  3. Tulsa's offense (90.2 points per 100 possessions, 194th in Division I) meets a Incarnate Word defense that ranks 341st.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Tulsa in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Tulsa can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (119th of 364) meets the Incarnate Word shooting defense (292nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (106th of 364) meets the Incarnate Word ball security (241st): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Hannah Riddick (Tulsa: 15.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 10.7) has the edge on Jorja Elliott (Incarnate Word: 12.4 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 8.7).
  7. Simulation: Tulsa win 3,710 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Tulsa may not

  1. Strength of schedule: Incarnate Word 114th (+0.5), Tulsa 289th (-0.6) of 364.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Tulsa lose by 9 or more.
  3. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Incarnate Word 110th (33.3%), Tulsa 236th (29.6%) of 364.
  4. Weak spot: Tulsa rank 295th of 364 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (25.4).
  5. Team matchup: Incarnate Word have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Tulsa on paper, but Jorja Elliott (12.4 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 8.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Incarnate Word win 1,290 of 5,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

UIW Incarnate Word

Every regular played last game.

TLSA Tulsa

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

UIWTLSA
0-0Record0-0
-10.8 276Net rating+2.6 140
91.9 169Offensive rating90.2 194
102.7 341Defensive rating87.6 89
+0.5 114Strength of schedule-0.6 289
45.6% 163Effective FG%47.2% 119
48.2% 292Opponent eFG%44.8% 136
24.1 241Turnovers per 10025.4 295
33.3% 110Offensive rebound %29.6% 236
30.3% 1893-point %31.0% 152
70.5 219Pace75.3 42

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

26%Incarnate Word
74%Tulsa

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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