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LIN

Lindenwood @ Colorado State

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Ohio Valley vs Mountain West · · Moby Arena

CSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
CSUColorado State Rams
68% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetCSU -5.2
Totaln/a126.6
Moneylinen/aLIN +214
CSU -214 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

CSU 78, LIN 73Typical score
LIN by 11 to CSU by 228 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Colorado State can win

  1. Home court: Colorado State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Colorado State's offense (99.2 points per 100 possessions, 67th in Division I) meets a Lindenwood defense that ranks 228th.
  3. Strength: Colorado State rank 3rd of 364 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.1).
  4. Strength: Colorado State rank 7th of 364 in points allowed per game (55.5).
  5. Team matchup: where Colorado State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (102nd of 364) meets the Lindenwood shooting defense (295th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Colorado State. The closest: at forward, Gracie Kelsey (Lindenwood: 7.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 6.3) is about even with Madelyn Bragg (Colorado State: 8.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 5.9).
  7. Simulation: Colorado State win 3,410 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Colorado State may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Colorado State lose by 11 or more.
  2. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Lindenwood 142nd (23.4), Colorado State 292nd (19.7) of 364.
  3. Weak spot: Colorado State rank 349th of 364 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (22.8%).
  4. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Lindenwood 223rd (29.9%), Colorado State 349th (22.8%) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: Lindenwood have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Colorado State on paper, but Aleshia Jones (15.3 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 12.5) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Lindenwood win 1,590 of 5,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

LIN Lindenwood

Every regular played last game.

CSU Colorado State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

LINCSU
0-0Record0-0
+13.4 56Net rating+15.4 39
106.9 21Offensive rating99.2 67
93.5 228Defensive rating83.7 30
-0.3 220Strength of schedule-0.3 228
53.8% 13Effective FG%47.7% 102
48.3% 295Opponent eFG%40.7% 10
19.5 56Turnovers per 10016.1 3
29.9% 223Offensive rebound %22.8% 349
37.4% 63-point %32.2% 112
67.4 322Pace66.3 339

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

32%Lindenwood
68%Colorado State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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