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LT

Louisiana Tech @ Toledo

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Sun Belt vs MAC · · Savage Arena · MAC-SBC Challenge

TOL
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
LTLouisiana Tech Lady Techsters
58% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetLT -2.8
Totaln/a128.4
Moneylinen/aLT -139
TOL +139 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

TOL 74, LT 76Typical score
LT by 19 to TOL by 148 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Louisiana Tech can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to Louisiana Tech in our ratings.
  2. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to Louisiana Tech in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Louisiana Tech 46th (+14.4), Toledo 148th (+2.1) of 364.
  4. Three-point shooting: Louisiana Tech 40th (34.5%), Toledo 271st (28.6%) of 364.
  5. Team matchup: where Louisiana Tech can take advantage. Their ball pressure (30th of 364) meets the Toledo ball security (285th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (58th of 364) meets the Toledo shooting defense (202nd): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Paris Bradley (Louisiana Tech: 14.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 11.6) has the edge on Faith Fedd-Robinson (Toledo: 11.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 8.7); at forward, Jordan Marshall (Louisiana Tech: 10.7 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 9.0) has the edge on Evalyse Cole (Toledo: 7.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 6.2).
  7. Simulation: Louisiana Tech win 2,910 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Louisiana Tech may not

  1. Home court: Toledo play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Toledo 14th (74.6%), Louisiana Tech 260th (66.4%) of 364.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Louisiana Tech lose by 14 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Louisiana Tech rank 260th of 364 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (66.4%).
  5. Team matchup: where Toledo can push back. Their offensive rebounding (124th of 364) meets the Louisiana Tech defensive rebounding (260th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Louisiana Tech on paper, but Faith Fedd-Robinson (11.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 8.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Toledo win 2,090 of 5,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

LT Louisiana Tech

Every regular played last game.

TOL Toledo

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

LTTOL
0-0Record0-0
+14.4 46Net rating+2.1 148
101.4 47Offensive rating91.5 177
87.0 78Defensive rating89.3 131
+0.1 158Strength of schedule+0.1 166
49.8% 58Effective FG%46.7% 129
45.3% 166Opponent eFG%45.9% 202
23.4 206Turnovers per 10025.1 285
36.8% 43Offensive rebound %32.9% 124
34.5% 403-point %28.6% 271
69.5 262Pace70.8 198

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

58%Louisiana Tech
42%Toledo

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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