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GAST

Georgia State @ Buffalo

Women's college basketball 2026-27 · Sun Belt vs MAC · · Broadview Arena · MAC-SBC Challenge

BUF
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under yet · our total 138.8

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bulls
51% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetBUF -0.2
Totaln/a138.8
Moneylinen/aGAST +106
BUF -106 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

BUF 76, GAST 75Typical score
GAST by 15 to BUF by 178 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Buffalo can win

  1. Home court: Buffalo play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Buffalo 254th (66.5%), Georgia State 360th (57.3%) of 364.
  3. Strength: Buffalo rank 59th of 364 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (35.9%).
  4. Relative strength: Buffalo rank 156th of 364 in strength of schedule (+0.2).
  5. Team matchup: where Buffalo can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (59th of 364) meets the Georgia State defensive rebounding (360th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Buffalo, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Meg Lucas (9.9 pts, 9.6 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 7.8) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Buffalo win 2,570 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Buffalo may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to Georgia State in our ratings.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Georgia State 46th (19.0), Buffalo 345th (28.1) of 364.
  3. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to Georgia State in our ratings.
  4. Georgia State's offense (89.7 points per 100 possessions, 201st in Division I) meets a Buffalo defense that ranks 287th.
  5. Team matchup: where Georgia State can push back. Their ball pressure (50th of 364) meets the Buffalo ball security (345th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Crystal Henderson (Georgia State: 16.7 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.1 ast, Game Score 10.7) has the edge on Meg Lucas (Buffalo: 9.9 pts, 9.6 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 7.8).
  7. Upset odds: Georgia State win 2,430 of 5,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

GAST Georgia State

Every regular played last game.

BUF Buffalo

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

GASTBUF
0-0Record0-0
-11.2 281Net rating-17.8 332
89.7 201Offensive rating79.4 332
100.9 325Defensive rating97.2 287
+0.6 99Strength of schedule+0.2 156
42.9% 274Effective FG%40.8% 319
50.3% 345Opponent eFG%48.0% 286
19.0 46Turnovers per 10028.1 345
27.7% 285Offensive rebound %35.9% 59
28.2% 2863-point %24.6% 353
75.1 45Pace73.9 66

Small numbers are ranks among 364 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

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49%Georgia State
51%Buffalo

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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