- Dallas Cowboys 3-5 · 13th in the NFC · 2nd in the NFC East · L1
- Indianapolis Colts 2-6 · 13th in the AFC · 3rd in the AFC South · L4
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -6 | Same |
| Total | 51.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | DAL -270 IND +220 | DAL -236 IND +236 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys +1.3, Colts -15.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 2.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 16th (+0.8), Colts 28th (-7.6).
- Team matchup: where the Cowboys can take advantage. Their running game (8th of 32) meets the Colts run defense (32nd), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their passing game (8th of 32) meets the Colts pass defense (20th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Dak Prescott (Cowboys: +0.17 EPA per dropback, 9th of 33) has the edge on Daniel Jones (Colts: -0.18, 30th); at receiver, CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys: 89 receiving yards a game, 6 TD) has the edge on Josh Downs (Colts: 41, 1 TD), facing the Colts pass defense (20th of 32).
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Cowboys 70% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (40.6), Cowboys 22nd (64.2).
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
- Team matchup: where the Colts can push back. Their running game (7th of 32) meets the Cowboys run defense (27th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Jonathan Taylor (Colts: 76 rushing yards a game, 4.1 a carry) has the edge on Javonte Williams (Cowboys: 66, 3.9), facing the Cowboys run defense (27th of 32).
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,970 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| DAL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 2-6 |
| 27.4 7 | Points per game | 20.1 26 |
| 26.6 27 | Points allowed | 27.8 30 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | -0.10 30 |
| +0.13 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.1 17 | Turnover margin/game | -1.4 32 |
| 5.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | IND 19 @ DAL 54 | DAL | DAL -11 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | DAL 0 @ IND 23 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2014-12-21 | 2014 Wk 16 | IND 7 @ DAL 42 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 2010-12-05 | 2010 Wk 13 | DAL 38 @ IND 35 | DAL | IND -5.5 |
| 2006-11-19 | 2006 Wk 11 | IND 14 @ DAL 21 | DAL | IND -1 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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