- Denver Broncos 6-2 · 2nd in the AFC · 1st in the AFC West · W4
- Carolina Panthers 3-4 · 4th in the NFC · 1st in the NFC South · L2
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DEN -3 | Same |
| Total | 43.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | DEN -148 CAR +124 | DEN -159 CAR +159 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the Broncos can take advantage. Their running game (18th of 32) meets the Panthers run defense (30th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their pass rush (13th of 32) meets the Panthers pass protection (22nd): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Zach Allen (Broncos: 4.5 sacks) has the edge on Princely Umanmielen (Panthers: 3), facing the Panthers pass protection (22nd of 32).
- The betting market agrees: Broncos 57% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Rest: Panthers have 10 days since their last game, Broncos 7.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 14 or more.
- Team matchup: where the Panthers can push back. Their big-play offense (10th of 32) meets the Broncos defense against big plays (20th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (20th of 32) meets the Broncos run defense (26th): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Chuba Hubbard (Panthers: 77 rushing yards a game, 4.6 a carry) has the edge on J.K. Dobbins (Broncos: 38, 3.3), facing the Broncos run defense (26th of 32); at receiver, Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers: 81 receiving yards a game, 2 TD) has the edge on Jaylen Waddle (Broncos: 39, 2 TD), facing the Broncos pass defense (8th of 32).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| DEN | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.5 22 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 20.6 11 | Points allowed | 27.6 28 |
| -0.03 21 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 14 |
| -0.02 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.5 7 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 14 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | CAR 14 @ DEN 28 | DEN | DEN -13 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | DEN 10 @ CAR 23 | CAR | DEN -1 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | DEN 32 @ CAR 27 | DEN | CAR -4 |
| 2016-09-08 | 2016 Wk 1 | CAR 20 @ DEN 21 | DEN | CAR -3 |
| 2016-02-07 | 2015 Super Bowl | CAR 10 @ DEN 24 | DEN | CAR -4.5 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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