- Jacksonville Jaguars 5-2 · 4th in the AFC · 1st in the AFC South · W1
- Baltimore Ravens 4-4 · 10th in the AFC · 4th in the AFC North · L3
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX -8.5 | Same |
| Total | 42.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | JAX -470 BAL +360 | JAX -357 BAL +357 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jaguars +11.3, Ravens -17.0.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 1st (+12.1), Ravens 23rd (-3.0).
- Team matchup: where the Jaguars can take advantage. Their passing game (3rd of 32) meets the Ravens pass defense (24th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (4th of 32) meets the Ravens defense against big plays (17th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars: +0.28 EPA per dropback, 3rd of 33) has the edge on Tyler Huntley (Ravens: +0.02, 17th).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Jaguars 79% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 28th in penalty yards per game (68.1).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (5.4%).
- Team matchup: the Ravens have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Zay Flowers (Ravens: 76 receiving yards a game, 3 TD) has the edge on Parker Washington (Jaguars: 62, 4 TD), facing the Jaguars pass defense (5th of 32); in the backfield, Derrick Henry (Ravens: 79 rushing yards a game, 4.0 a carry) has the edge on Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars: 70, 4.5), facing the Jaguars run defense (1st of 32).
- Upset odds: Ravens win 2,190 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| JAX | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 28.0 5 | Points per game | 22.4 19 |
| 15.9 2 | Points allowed | 25.4 22 |
| +0.16 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.03 12 |
| -0.10 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 21 |
| +1.0 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 14 |
| 5.4% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | BAL 23 @ JAX 7 | BAL | BAL -4 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | BAL 27 @ JAX 28 | JAX | BAL -3.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | JAX 14 @ BAL 40 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | BAL 7 @ JAX 44 | JAX | BAL -3 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | BAL 19 @ JAX 17 | BAL | BAL -1 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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