ARIATL
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,110 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 10 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · ATL n/a | ARI 31% · ATL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +222 · ATL -222 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 27, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 10 and ATL by 23.
Side by side
| ARI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | ATL 26 @ ARI 19 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | ATL 23 @ ARI 25 | ARI | ATL -2 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | ARI 19 @ ATL 20 | ATL | ATL -7 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | ATL 33 @ ARI 34 | ARI | ATL -3 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | ARI 14 @ ATL 40 | ATL | ATL -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away