ATLARI
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.6 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,950 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Falcons cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · ARI n/a | ATL 60% · ARI 40% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -153 · ARI +153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 23, ATL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 20 and ARI by 14.
Side by side
| ATL | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | ATL 26 @ ARI 19 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | ATL 23 @ ARI 25 | ARI | ATL -2 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | ARI 19 @ ATL 20 | ATL | ATL -7 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | ATL 33 @ ARI 34 | ARI | ATL -3 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | ARI 14 @ ATL 40 | ATL | ATL -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away